BMIE Market 20732

Calvert County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,722 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±571 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,139 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,919 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,957 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$140,304 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,965 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,825 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±444 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$448,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,862 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20732
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+20.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20732. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.0	81	40%	+32.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.5	63	35%	+21.9
Market Momentum Score	24	24	25%	+6.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,722	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	140,304	95	40%	+37.9
Households (ACS)	4,139	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.2	68	25%	+16.9
Population (ACS)	10,722	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	140,304	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 3 · Asian 3 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Seafood 3 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 7 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1936 Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4100 Mears Ave	open
Abners Crab House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood · American	3748 Harbor Rd	open
Baia Coastal Italian Kitchen & Wine Bar	Bar	Italian · Seafood	8323 Bayside Rd	open
Bayhill Accents	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7544 Bayside Rd	open
Beachin Bay Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	8884 St Andrews Dr	open
Boardwalk Cafe	Café	Coffee	4165 Mears Ave	open
Breezy Point Fishing Center	Bar		5230 Breezy Point Rd	open
Butterflies & Wishes Tea & Sweets	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Dessert · Coffee	3819 Harbor Rd #106	open
CBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	4160 Mears Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	7861 Bayside Rd	open
Greenspring Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2309 Greenspring Ct	open
Jerry's basement bar and lounge	Bar		2440 Harrison Ct	open
Ledo Pizza Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3737 Chesapeake Beach Rd	open
Little Panda Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7863 Bayside Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7925 Bayside Rd	open
Mimi's Cookies & Confections	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7509 H St	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8020 Bayside Rd	open
Peking Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3801 Chesapeake Beach Rd	open
Professional 60	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	Russell Cellular, 7931 Bayside Rd	open
Stregga 2 Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8416 Bayside Rd	open
Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7917 Bayside Road	open
The Dock	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4165 Mears Ave	open
Total Picture Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3819 Harbor Rd Unit 101	open
Traders Seafood Steak and Ale	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · Steakhouse	8132 Bayside Rd	open
Tuyet Haymon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		162 Skerrols St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	12	9	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	10	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	16	16	9	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	12	9	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	5	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	5	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	5	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20732. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20689	2.6 mi	3	2022
20714	3.4 mi	10	2023
20736	4.7 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.