BMIE Market 20853

Montgomery County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,851 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,465 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,692 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±489 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,673 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,035 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$159,080 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,861 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±397 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$631,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,136 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20853
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-5.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+88.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 12–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20853. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.8	92	40%	+36.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.3	67	35%	+23.5
Market Momentum Score	52.4	52	25%	+13.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,851	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	159,080	97	40%	+38.8
Households (ACS)	9,692	85	20%	+17.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-5.6	21	35%	+7.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.3	91	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	31,851	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	159,080	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.3	71	50%	+35.7
10-year restaurant growth	-5.6	21	30%	+6.2
20-year restaurant growth	30.8	52	20%	+10.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · American 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Coffee shop 4 · Café 3 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angelo's Pizza Pasta and Deli Angelo's 3	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Italian · American · Sandwiches · Pizza	4011 Norbeck Rd	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	5510 Norbeck Rd	open
Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	5562 Norbeck Rd	open
Chicken Basket (Norbeck)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Seafood · Halal / kosher	4007 Norbeck Road Suite BB	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5504 Norbeck Rd	open
Creek Lodge Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Sandwiches	5566 Norbeck Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		4011 Norbeck Road	open
eaThai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	4011 Norbeck Rd	open
Ema Rossi Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	5556 Norbeck Rd	open
Full On Craft Eats & Drinks	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Sandwiches	4007 Norbeck Rd	open
Moko Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5550 Norbeck Rd	open
New Mandarin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5574 Norbeck Rd	open
Norby's Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5562 Norbeck Rd	open
PBs coffee & dessert	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	5562 Norbeck Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5556 Norbeck Rd	open
Ruiz-habig Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5556 Norbeck Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	5510 Norbeck Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5548 Norbeck Rd	open
Tabasco Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4007 Norbeck Rd	open
The Big Greek Cafe Nick The Greek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	4007 Norbeck Rd	open
Twins Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4007 Norbeck Rd	open
Urban Burger Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5566 Norbeck Rd	open
Villa Maya Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5532 Norbeck Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	12	3	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	5	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	18	17	6	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	13	4	6	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	4	6	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	23	17	8	7	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	23	18	9	8	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	20	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	9	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	16	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	18	7	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	17	6	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20853. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20851	2.2 mi	13	2023
20906	2.4 mi	70	2023
20855	3.1 mi	24	2023
20832	3.5 mi	46	2023
20852	3.8 mi	171	2023
20896	4.6 mi	1	2016
20860	4.7 mi	1	2016
20850	4.7 mi	149	2023
20902	4.9 mi	98	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.