BMIE Market 20851

Montgomery County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,946 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,180 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,155 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±403 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,191 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,042 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$126,411 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,826 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,043 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±155 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$568,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,681 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20851
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-13.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-13.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+44.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 11–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20851. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.5	82	40%	+33.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.9	59	35%	+20.6
Market Momentum Score	15	15	25%	+3.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,946	77	40%	+30.6
Median household income (ACS)	126,411	92	40%	+36.9
Households (ACS)	5,155	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-13.3	17	35%	+5.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.7	77	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	14,946	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	126,411	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	50%	+6.9
10-year restaurant growth	-13.3	17	30%	+5.0
20-year restaurant growth	-13.3	16	20%	+3.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Bakery 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Dessert 4 · American 3 · Asian 3 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Peruvian 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Korean 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegan 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Quick service 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asia Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	703 1st St	open
Bobby's Burger Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers	1140 Broadwood Dr	open
Cafe 5601	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5601 Fishers Ln	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2019 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Denise Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Latin American (other)	2009 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Don Pollo of Rockville Don Pollo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	2206 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Doña Cecy's Pupuseria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	2002 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Dunkin'	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	2006 Veirs Mill Rd, Twinbrook Shopping Center	open
First Street Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		820 Baltimore Rd	open
Ha Dong House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Chinese · BBQ · Asian	2104 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Hello Vietnam	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese	2200 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Jonathan's Sports Pub Grill & Pizzeria	Bar		820 Baltimore Rd	open
Kaypi Chicken Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	2005 Veirs Mill Rd	open
La Speranza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	806 Baltimore Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · American	2092 Veirs Mill Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2101 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Neko Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1902 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Pangea Vegan Products	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	2381 Lewis Ave	open
Rockville Oriental Billiard Club	Bar		2015 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Shilla Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2098 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Sunflower Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5951 Halpine Rd	open
Sweet Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	701 First St	open
Swiss Pastries, Inc.	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	2377 Lewis Ave	open
Tamarind Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2005 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Taqueria Xintli	Food truck	Mexican	2131 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Tijuana's Mexican Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	2007 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Tomatillo Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	2232 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Troy Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	701 1st St	open
Twinbrook Deli Beer and Wine	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2208 Veirs Mill Rd	open
Yummy Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	Asian	2010 Veirs Mill Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	6	3	1	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	4	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	14	8	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	16	15	6	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	9	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	17	15	9	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	17	14	9	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	14	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	13	4	9	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	12	4	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	4	7	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	16	14	4	7	3	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	15	4	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	3	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	16	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	16	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20851. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20852	1.8 mi	171	2023
20853	2.2 mi	17	2023
20896	3.3 mi	1	2016
20850	3.3 mi	149	2023
20906	3.6 mi	70	2023
20855	4.1 mi	24	2023
20895	4.2 mi	24	2023
20902	4.8 mi	98	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.