BMIE Market 21031

Baltimore County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	26 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	19 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	Data source not yet connected
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	0.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21031
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20,000.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+166.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	23 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	4 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	16 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21031. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	3.5	4	40%	+1.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	16.1	16	35%	+5.6
Market Momentum Score	64.7	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 4 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	26	3	40%	+1.9
Households (ACS)	19	5	20%	+1.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 16 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+15.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3,076.9	0	25%	+0.0
Population (ACS)	26	3	20%	+0.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	166.7	90	20%	+18.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 3 · Sandwiches 2 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Café 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
B.C. Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		10950 Gilroy Rd	open
Cafe Gourmet	Café	Coffee	101 Schilling Rd Ste 10	open
Carrabba's Italian Grill Carrabba's Italian Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	130 Shawan Road	open
Cinnamon Tree Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	245 Shawan Rd	open
Dunbar Armored	Restaurant (service type not stated)		230 Schilling Cir	open
Fat Boys Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	101 Schilling Rd #10	open
Gilroys Cafe	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Coffee	10830 Gilroy Rd	open
McCormick & Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	211 Schilling Cir	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11310 York Rd	open
Nalley Fresh Nalley Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	225 Schilling Cir	open
Outback Steakhouse	Bar		1300 Shawan Rd # 34	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	11300 McCormick Rd	open
Three Dog Deli	Café	Coffee	11350 McCormick Rd	open
Webbmason, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10830 Gilroy Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	8	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	8	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	7	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	8	2	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	6	2	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	6	2	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	7	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21031. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21030	2.9 mi	81	2023
21093	3.5 mi	75	2023
21131	3.9 mi	8	2023
21152	4.9 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.