BMIE Market 21131

Baltimore County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,141 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±872 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±285 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,253 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,656 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$197,619 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,903 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$686,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,585 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21131
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-11.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 3–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21131. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.9	79	40%	+31.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.1	53	35%	+18.6
Market Momentum Score	47.1	47	25%	+11.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,141	66	40%	+26.3
Median household income (ACS)	197,619	99	40%	+39.6
Households (ACS)	2,600	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.2	68	25%	+16.9
Population (ACS)	7,141	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	197,619	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	20%	+1.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Burgers 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bagels Unlimited Inc Bagelmeister	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3443 Sweet Air Rd	open
Beef Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	14227 Jarrettsville Pike	open
Brookside Market - Phoenix, Maryland	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	14232 Jarrettsville Pike	open
El Taquito Leon 4 El Taquito Leon	Food truck	Mexican	14226 Jarrettsville Pike	open
Golden House Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3441 Sweet Air Rd	open
Jimmy's Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse	3419 Sweet Air Rd	open
Kooper's Jacksonville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3493 Sweet Air Rd	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3425 Sweet Air Rd	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3434 Sweet Air Rd	open
Peerce's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	12460 Dulaney Valley Rd	open
Smk Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3434 Sweet Air Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3499 Sweet Air Rd	open
Strapasta \| Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	3451 Sweet Air Rd	open
The Cake Studio	Bakery	Bakery	3330 Paper Mill Rd	open
Tuscany, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12460 Dulaney Valley Rd	open
Romas Carry Out Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3419 Sweet Air Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	12	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	15	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	12	5	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	15	6	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	17	17	6	9	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	16	6	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	17	7	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	15	4	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	4	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	16	5	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21131. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21031	3.9 mi	8	2023
21111	4.9 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.