BMIE Market 21047

Harford County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,852 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,430 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,810 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±455 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,873 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,293 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$157,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,821 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,315 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±375 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$552,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,018 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21047
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+31.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+81.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+262.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+222.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	34 (range 31–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.2 per year, r² 0.93) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21047. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.93, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.6	84	40%	+33.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.4	74	35%	+26.0
Market Momentum Score	87.8	88	25%	+22.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,852	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	157,500	97	40%	+38.7
Households (ACS)	4,810	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	81.3	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.9	35	25%	+8.7
Population (ACS)	13,852	75	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	157,500	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	31.8	84	50%	+41.9
10-year restaurant growth	81.3	89	30%	+26.7
20-year restaurant growth	262.5	96	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 13 · Dessert 6 · Pizza 5 · Seafood 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 7 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 6 · Bar 4 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Acappella Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	2402 Pleasantville Rd	open
Asian Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Coffee	2316 Belair Rd Ste D	open
Asian Cafe Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2316 Bel Air Rd Ste D	open
Basta Pasta - Fallston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood · Pizza	2745 Fallston Rd	open
Black Forest Tap House	Bar · Casual dining		2410 Pleasantville Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	305 Mountain Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2209 Bel Air Rd	open
Choate winery & Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		2225 Choate Rd	open
Di Pasquale's Gourmet Italian	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2419 Baldwin Mill Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1920 Bel Air Rd	open
Earth, Wood and Fire Earth, Wood & Fire - Fallston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	214 Mountain Rd	open
Fallston Barrel House	Casual dining · Bar	American	2403 Belair Rd	open
Fallston Food Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2419 Baldwin Mill Rd	open
Fallston Ice Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		220 Mountain Rd # A	open
Fast Eddie's Pit Beef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	2807 Belair Rd	open
Hospitality Steak House Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2404 Bel Air Rd	open
Italian Sensation	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2316 Belair Rd E	open
J & T Snowballs	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2400 Baldwin Mill Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2404 Bel Air Road	open
Mr. Y's Pizza N Fries Mr.Y's Pizza n Fries Fallston	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2205 Bel Air Rd	open
Natalie's Seafood Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	2315 Belair Rd # B2	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1918 Bel Air Rd	open
Plaza Mexico	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2314 Belair Rd	open
Rita's Italian Ice and Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	220 Mountain Rd	open
Rita’s of Fallston MD Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Savory Deli and Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2801 Fallston Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2316 Belair Rd	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Dessert · Quick service	Sandwiches · Dessert	303 Fallston Blvd	open
Tacos Tolteca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2823 Belair Rd	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	2428 Bel Air Rd	open
The crab barrel	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	2403 Belair Rd	open
The Crab Truck and Seafood Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1607 Belair Rd	open
The Local The Local	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1918 Belair Rd	open
The Sweet Greek Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · European	2735a Fallston Rd	open
Uncle's Hawaiian Barbecue And Fish House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2315 Bel Air Rd Ste B2	open
Vayuputra Donuts Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1920 Bel Air Rd	open
Vince's Crab House & Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	2108 Fallston Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1916 Bel Air Rd	open
Yummi Freeze	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1702 Harford Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	18	15	12	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	15	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	18	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	17	6	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	15	6	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	4	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	6	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	17	8	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	18	5	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	21	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	22	11	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	23	11	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	23	12	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	23	11	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	29	27	14	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	29	29	15	11	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21047. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21013	3.0 mi	1	2013
21082	3.9 mi	1	1999
21051	3.9 mi	2	2016
21014	4.6 mi	94	2023
21050	4.7 mi	17	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.