BMIE Market 21050

Harford County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,466 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,189 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,422 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±352 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,202 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,609 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$125,208 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,929 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,697 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$456,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	29.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21050
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+21.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+142.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 16–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21050. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.0	84	40%	+33.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.0	75	35%	+26.3
Market Momentum Score	59.1	59	25%	+14.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,466	79	40%	+31.6
Median household income (ACS)	125,208	92	40%	+36.7
Households (ACS)	6,422	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	21.4	64	35%	+22.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.7	73	25%	+18.3
Population (ACS)	17,466	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	125,208	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.3	63	50%	+31.5
10-year restaurant growth	21.4	64	30%	+19.3
20-year restaurant growth	13.3	41	20%	+8.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

American 7 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Chinese 3 · Asian 2 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Greek 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Sushi 2 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 10 · Dessert 8 · Quick service 7 · Casual dining 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
B K Capital Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5 Bynum Rd	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	2101 Rock Spring Rd	open
Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1510 Rock Spring Rd	open
Cara, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 Newport Dr	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1980 Rock Spring Rd	open
China Delight	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1 Newport Dr Suite E	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican	1538 Rock Spring Rd Ste 200	open
Chopstix Chopstix Noodle Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Chinese · Asian	1523 Rock Spring Rd	open
Chris Doughs Pizzeria & Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Italian	1517 Rock Spring Rd	open
Dewey Donut Co	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1521 Rock Spring Rd	open
Double Groove Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1659 Robin Cir Ste D	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	35 Osborne Pkwy	open
Eat Like A Greek	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	331 Spenceola Pkwy	open
Echo Frezco Écho Frezco: Shrewsbury	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1517 Rock Spring Rd	open
Enotria Restaurant & Grill \| Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	2 Newport Dr	open
Fishermans Catch Restaurant and Lounge	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	1 Maurice Dr	open
Fuzzies Burgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	132 Industry Ln	open
Gene's Bar & Restaurant Incorporated	Casual dining · Bar	American	1368 Jarrettsville Rd	open
Harford Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1311 W Jarrettsville Rd	open
Klein' S Shoprite Bakeries	Bakery	Bakery	2101 Rock Spring Rd	open
Kona Ice Of Bel Air	Dessert		132A Industry Ln	open
Matthews L3 Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1517 Rock Spring Rd	open
Mr. Souvlaki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	1521 Rock Spring Rd Ste A	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2017 Rock Spring Rd	open
Pit & Pinchers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2 Forest Valley Dr	open
Rassa Ranch Saloon	Bar		1106 Walters Mill Rd	open
Rita's Italian Ice and Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1510 Rock Spring Rd	open
Rita’s of Forest Hill MD Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Schmidts Glory Hole	Bar		327 Chestnut Hill Rd	open
Schwan's Sales Enterprises	Dessert · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Specialty food shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies	109 Industry Ln	open
Sharon's Shaved Ice Snowballs	Dessert	Dessert	1500 Rock Spring Rd	open
Silver Palace Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1510 Rock Spring Rd	open
Smoothie King Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	1528 Rock Spring Rd. Suite 300	open
Spenceola II Clubhouse	Bar		1999 Mardic Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1538 Rock Spring Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2 Meyers Dr Ste 1	open
Tankard Restaurant And Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Maurice Dr	open
The Kempton Cottage Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	1401 Balsam Ct	open
The Long Hall Tavern	Bar		1107 Walters Mill Rd	open
Tutto Fresco	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	5 Bynum Rd	open
Wargo's Restaurant & Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American · BBQ	308 E Jarrettsville Rd	open
Wilson's Corner	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2402 Rocks Rd	open
Zhang & Tang Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Newport Dr Ste E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	15	13	6	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	17	15	6	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	17	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	17	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	17	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	18	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	21	15	9	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	20	16	8	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	15	9	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	15	9	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	16	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	17	7	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	17	6	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21050. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21014	4.0 mi	94	2023
21084	4.4 mi	5	2023
21047	4.7 mi	29	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.