BMIE Market 21078

Harford County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,030 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±745 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,476 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±376 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,603 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,797 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$106,667 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,243 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,433 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±102 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$385,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,522 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	30.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	31 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21078
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-6.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+40.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+55.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	29 (range 25–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21078. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.0	83	40%	+33.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.2	53	35%	+18.6
Market Momentum Score	27.7	28	25%	+6.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,030	81	40%	+32.6
Median household income (ACS)	106,667	85	40%	+34.0
Households (ACS)	8,476	82	20%	+16.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-6.1	20	35%	+7.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.5	51	25%	+12.8
Population (ACS)	20,030	81	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	106,667	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.8	20	50%	+9.8
10-year restaurant growth	-6.1	20	30%	+6.1
20-year restaurant growth	40.9	59	20%	+11.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (70)

By cuisine

American 12 · Bakery 8 · Coffee 8 · Pizza 8 · Seafood 7 · Dessert 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Italian 5 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · French 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Steakhouse 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Peruvian 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Bar 15 · Bakery 10 · Dessert 9 · Quick service 9 · Café 6 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
410 Empanadas	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	109 N Washington St	open
Abbey Burger Hdg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	226 N Washington St	open
Backfin Blues Creole De Graw	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · Cajun, Creole, Southern · Seafood · Sandwiches	400 N Union Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins Dunkin'	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	1057 Pulaski Hwy	open
Battery Island Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		101a N Washington St	open
Bayou Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		927 Pulaski Hwy	open
Bella's Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	421 St John St	open
Bill Bateman's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2021 Pulaski Hwy	open
Blast From The Past	Dessert		119 N Washington St	open
Bomboy's Homemade Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	322 Market St	open
Bulle Rock Gourmet Pub and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza · American	1200 Bulle Rock Pkwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	990 Pulaski Hwy	open
Butcher on the Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated)		226 N Washington St	open
Chesapeake Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	913 Pulaski Hwy	open
China Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1020 Pulaski Hwy	open
China Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	800 Pulaski Hwy	open
Coakley's Cornerstone	Bar	British / Irish pub food	419 N Union Ave	open
Concord Point Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · American	217 N Washington St	open
Crust & Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	8 N Earlton Rd Ext	open
Danny’s Deli Havre de Grace	Other	Sandwiches	712 Erie St	open
Deli Mart Carryout And Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	1123 Revolution St Ste A	open
Desserts By Rita	Bakery	Bakery	1307 Pulaski Hwy	open
Divergent Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2017 Pulaski Hwy	open
Dominos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	900 Pulaski Hwy	open
Eat Like A Greek	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		710 Lewis St	open
Galvinell Meat Co Inc	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	911 Ontario St	open
Goll's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	234 N Washington St	open
Havre de Haunts, Original Ghost Tours of Havre de Grace, #1 Rated	Restaurant (service type not stated)		217 N Washington St	open
Herb's On the Curb	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	4000 Chapel Rd	open
Hopkins Farm Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		3833 Rider Ln	open
Jaime Bakes	Bakery	Bakery	311 Saint John St	open
Jana's Java	Coffee shop	Coffee	215 N Washington St	open
Java By the Bay	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	118 N Washington St	open
Kooper’s Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		205 N Washington St	open
La Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	103 N Washington St	open
La Monarca Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican		open
Les Petits Bisous	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · French · Dessert	100 N Washington St	open
Lin's Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Steakhouse · Asian	1007 Pulaski Hwy	open
MacGregor's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	331 St John St	open
Makis Restaurant & Bar	Bar	Seafood	320 St John St	open
Maria's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	866 Otsego St	open
Market Street Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		203 Market St Ste 110	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	802 Pulaski Hwy	open
Miss Twist Ice Cream - Havre de Grace	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1834 Pulaski Hwy	open
Mount Felix	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Mount Felix Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2000 Level Rd	open
Nonnie's Brick Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	801 Otsego St #2616	open
Odd Octopus Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	Bakery Ave	open
Olivia's Nutrition and Fitness	Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining	Healthy / salads / bowls · Juice / smoothies · American	612 N Juniata St	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1005 Pulaski Hwy Unit 1013	open
Paradis Production	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1834 Pulaski Hwy	open
Pats Pizzeria and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1201 Revolution St	open
Peru's Chicken II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	1834 Pulaski Hwy	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	600 Ohio St	open
Price's Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	654 Water St	open
Ritz Gourmet Cafe	Café	Coffee	421 Sa. John St.	open
River City Crabs and Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	921 Pulaski Hwy	open
River City Public House	Bar		209 N Washington St	open
Solo Cup	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1900 Clark Rd	open
Sophia’s Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Healthy / salads / bowls		open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1043 Pulaski Hwy	open
Sweet Eats Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	311 Saint John St	open
The Promenade Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	352 Commerce St	open
The Vineyard Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		142 N Washington St	open
Tidewater Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	300 Franklin St	open
Totally Baked By Tay	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	811 Revolution St	open
Tutti Paella	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas · Mediterranean · Italian	2021 Pulaski Hwy Ste h	open
Vintage Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	400 N Union Ave	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	808 Pulaski Hwy	open
Water Street Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	654 Water St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	20	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	22	20	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	26	23	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	27	24	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	27	23	12	11	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	25	20	10	10	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	24	20	11	9	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	25	21	10	10	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	23	20	12	8	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	24	22	13	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	22	19	10	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	24	22	12	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	24	22	10	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	32	31	15	15	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	29	26	14	10	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	32	28	14	12	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	34	31	18	11	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	37	34	15	14	5	1	NAICS2007
2012	38	34	15	13	6	1	NAICS2012
2013	37	33	16	11	6	1	NAICS2012
2014	35	33	17	10	6	1	NAICS2012
2015	37	34	18	10	6	1	NAICS2012
2016	36	35	17	10	8	1	NAICS2012
2017	36	33	14	12	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	37	34	14	12	8	—	NAICS2017
2019	38	35	15	12	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	34	31	13	12	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	34	30	14	11	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	33	29	13	11	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	35	31	11	13	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21078. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21902	4.2 mi	—
21001	4.9 mi	45	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.