BMIE Market 21128

Baltimore County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,347 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,609 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±392 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,802 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,053 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,069 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,538 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,935 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±203 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$449,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,097 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21128
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+77.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+700.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+433.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 12–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.19) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	89 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21128. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.19, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.1	83	40%	+33.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.4	77	35%	+27.1
Market Momentum Score	88.9	89	25%	+22.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,501	77	40%	+30.9
Median household income (ACS)	128,069	93	40%	+37.0
Households (ACS)	5,609	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.3	71	25%	+17.8
Population (ACS)	15,501	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	128,069	93	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	77.8	94	50%	+47.0
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	700	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 4 · Asian 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Indian 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 6 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Quick service		100 Main St	open
Bombay Nights	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	5007 Honeygo Center Dr	open
Busy Bee Snowballs	Dessert	Dessert		open
C.R. Wings - Perry Hall, MD	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9641 belair rd	open
Chatime Honeygo Village Chatime USA	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	5007 Honeygo Center Dr	open
Cheeburger Cheeburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5007 Honeygo Center Dr	open
Chopstix	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5002 Honeygo Center Dr	open
Closed	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Della Rose's Perry Hall Pub	Bar · Casual dining		5001 Honeygo Center Dr	open
Farmtoforktruck	Food truck		8839 Cowenton Ave	open
Haraz Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Homeland Organic LLC	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	9419 Kilbride Ct	open
Honeygo Donuts Dunkin'	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	5003 Honeygo Center Dr	open
KFC KFC	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	9114 Belair Road	open
Lib's Grill Lib's Grill of Perry Hall	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · Seafood	5009 Honeygo Center Dr	open
Manhattan Grill	Bar		5009 Honeygo Center Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9106 Belair Rd	open
Mubs’ Pub	Bar			open
Pizzeria 081	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8720 Cowenton Ave	open
R&R Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5005 Honeygo Center Dr Ste 105	open
River Stone Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American · Steakhouse	8720 Cowenton Ave	open
Sn Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5004 Honeygo Center Dr Ste 101	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5004 Honeygo Center Dr Ste 101	open
Taste of Taj Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	9810 Belair Rd	open
The Metal Compound & Studios	Bar			open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	3	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	3	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	13	3	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	2	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	12	5	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21128. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21236	2.2 mi	138	2023
21162	2.5 mi	11	2023
21156	2.9 mi	1	2016
21087	3.6 mi	4	2023
21234	4.5 mi	98	2023
21057	4.6 mi	1	2007
21051	4.7 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.