BMIE Market 21132

Harford County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,160 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±563 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,072 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±179 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,634 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	954 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$132,288 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65,146 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$485,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59,151 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 21132
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2007 → 2012, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	2 (range 0–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1995–2016 (10 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21132. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1995–2016, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.7	69	40%	+27.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.8	66	35%	+23.0
Market Momentum Score	36.9	37	25%	+9.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,160	53	40%	+21.2
Median household income (ACS)	132,288	93	40%	+37.4
Households (ACS)	1,072	51	20%	+10.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.2	97	25%	+24.3
Population (ACS)	3,160	53	20%	+10.6
Median household income (ACS)	132,288	93	20%	+18.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (6)

By cuisine

Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · American 1 · Coffee 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Dessert 2 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amorosos Restaurant	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Coffee	305 Pylesville Rd	open
Eats & Sweets	Restaurant (service type not stated)		305 Pylesville Rd Apt 12	open
Fiore Winery and Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3026 Whiteford Rd	open
Halsey's Country Snowballs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	707 Old Pylesville Rd	open
Hawkhouse Café & Creamery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Ice cream / frozen desserts	305 Pylesville Rd	open
The ROCK BAR	Bar		4929 Fawn Grove Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2002	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21132. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17321	3.9 mi	1	2016
21154	4.2 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.