BMIE Market 21795

Washington County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,144 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,010 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,935 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±317 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,233 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,958 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,864 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,394 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,301 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±57 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$295,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,060 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21795
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-10.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21795. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.0	71	40%	+28.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.0	54	35%	+18.9
Market Momentum Score	20.4	20	25%	+5.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,144	71	40%	+28.4
Median household income (ACS)	87,864	71	40%	+28.5
Households (ACS)	3,935	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	10,144	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	87,864	71	20%	+14.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

American 5 · Italian 4 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 7 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Always Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18 N Conococheague St	open
Big K's Family Restaurant	Quick service		10212 Governor Lane Blvd	open
Black Eyed Susan Restaurant & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17102 Virginia Ave	open
Blackeye Susan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	17102 Virginia Ave	open
C&O Grill and Pub	Bar · Casual dining		111 N Conococheague St	open
Carmine's Creative Italian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	17102 Virginia Ave	open
China 88	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	16 Milestone Terrace	open
Cindy's Sweets And Supplies	Bakery	Bakery	10226 Governor Lane Blvd	open
Columbine Manor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	16290 Spielman Rd	open
Cushwa Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		10210 Governor Lane Boulevard #2010	open
Desert Rose Catering and Sweet Shoppe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2 E Potomac St	open
High Thai'd	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	10212 Governor Lane Blvd	open
Interchange Tiki Bar & Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		10212 Governor Lane Boulevard	open
Lane's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		10732 Timothy Dr	open
Leiter's Fine Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		416 S Conococheague St	open
Lotus Moon Cafe	Café	Coffee	16 N Conococheague St	open
Maccaferri	Café	Coffee	10303 Governor Lane Blvd	open
Mama Lu Lu's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2 E Potomac St	open
Marco’s Pizza & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	20 Milestone Terrace	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	313 E Potomac St	open
Pepsi-Cola Bottling	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		16421 Elliott Pkwy	open
Rad Pies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10210 Governor Lane Blvd	open
River Bottom Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10212 Governor Lane Boulevard	open
Rust Oleum Distribution Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16634 Industrial Ln	open
Ruth's Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	28 N Conococheague St	open
Scoop-A-Licious & More	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	16904 Virginia Ave	open
Slick & Letts Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		16311 B, Kendle Rd	open
Starlight Inn	Bar		43 E Frederick St	open
Still Smokin' BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	24 N Conococheague St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8 Milestone Terrace	open
Sweet Notes Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	34 N Conococheague St	open
The Girls Joint Certified Cajun Diner	Casual dining	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	8638 Downsville Pike	open
Third Base	Bar · Casual dining		35 N Conococheague St	open
Tony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10 E Salisbury St	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	306 E Potomac St	open
Williamsport Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 E Potomac St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	11	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	10	6	2	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	12	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	13	9	4	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	12	8	3	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	12	8	2	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	10	7	1	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	10	7	2	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	2	7	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	14	11	4	7	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	10	2	8	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	11	8	3	5	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	9	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	5	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	10	4	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	17	12	4	7	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	16	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	11	4	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	17	12	4	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	14	10	5	4	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	13	9	5	3	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21795. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
25419	3.3 mi	11	2023
21781	3.5 mi	1	1997
21733	4.1 mi	1	2015

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.