BMIE Market 21903

Cecil County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,692 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±423 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,383 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±243 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,687 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,613 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,962 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,425 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$916 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±199 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$299,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,453 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21903
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-7.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+160.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21903. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.1	62	40%	+24.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.2	39	35%	+13.7
Market Momentum Score	59.7	60	25%	+14.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,692	63	40%	+25.0
Median household income (ACS)	78,962	61	40%	+24.3
Households (ACS)	2,383	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-7.1	20	35%	+6.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.8	31	25%	+7.6
Population (ACS)	5,692	63	20%	+12.5
Median household income (ACS)	78,962	61	20%	+12.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30	83	50%	+41.6
10-year restaurant growth	-7.1	20	30%	+6.0
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Mexican 3 · Asian 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · African 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Seafood 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
11111	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	5404 Pulaski Hwy	open
5th Company Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	American	325 Front St	open
Baker Cove	Bakery	Bakery		open
Box Car Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	Broad St.	open
Casagave Mexican Restaurant Bar & Grill Perryville	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	648 Broad St	open
Chesapeake Food Works	Restaurant (service type not stated)		68 Heather Ln	open
China Star China Star Wichita Falls Texas 華星中國料理	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5319 Pulaski Hwy	open
D&M Crabbing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegan	1107 Aiken Ave	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Mexican	41 Heather Lane	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5301 Pulaski Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	100 Rt. 40 Perryville Station	open
Ercole's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	631 Broad St	open
Greek Girls Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	317 Broad St	open
Grounded Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4899 Pulaski Hwy	open
Johnny's Sushi House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5412 Pulaski Hwy	open
Karlee's Subworks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · American	5319 Pulaski Hwy	open
Lindy's Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	5440 Pulaski Hwy	open
Lion of Judah Bible Cafe, Inc.	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	304 Aiken Ave	open
Napoli Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1486 Perryville Rd	open
Perryville Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1486 Perryville Rd #2	open
Perryville Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	648 Broad St	open
Pretzelmaker Pretzelmaker	Bakery	Bakery	1240 Chesapeake Overlook Pkwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	31 Heather Ln	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5301 Pulaski Hwy, Space A	open
Suya Republic	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	African	648 Broad St	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Mexican	61 Heather Ln	open
The Greene Turtle Sports Bar & Grille	Bar		1201 Chesapeake Overlook Pkwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21903. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21902	1.8 mi	—
21904	3.1 mi	10	2023
21914	3.2 mi	3	2016
21901	4.2 mi	26	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.