BMIE Market 21904

Cecil County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,233 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±716 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,269 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,252 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,871 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$88,136 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,508 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,422 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±315 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$333,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,291 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21904
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21904. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.7	67	40%	+26.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.9	63	35%	+22.0
Market Momentum Score	83.8	84	25%	+21.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,233	64	40%	+25.6
Median household income (ACS)	88,136	71	40%	+28.6
Households (ACS)	2,269	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.0	49	25%	+12.3
Population (ACS)	6,233	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	88,136	71	20%	+14.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42.9	88	50%	+44.1
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	400	98	20%	+19.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Bar 9 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Casual dining 6 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
"rave Cave"	Bar · Café	Coffee	953 Jacob Tome Memorial Hwy	open
Backfin Blues Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	19 S Main St	open
Cool Beans Sandwich & Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	14 S Main St	open
D'lorenzo's Pizza and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Italian	15 S Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1240 Chesapeake Overlook Pkwy	open
Granite Run Taproom	Bar · Casual dining		26 S Main St	open
Jerry Skrivanek V.F.W. Post 8185	Casual dining · Bar		520 Susquehanna River Rd	open
Jumbo Jimmy's Crab Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1065 Bainbridge Rd	open
Lee's Landing Dock Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	600 Rowland Dr	open
Old South Smoke House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1195 Jacob Tome Memorial Hwy	open
Peet's Coffee & Tea Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	10670 I-95	open
Port Deposit Boardwalk	Bar	American · Sandwiches	600 Rowland Dr	open
Port Deposit VFW	Bar		520 Susquehanna River Rd	open
Prost Bavarian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	1195 Jacob Tome Memorial Hwy	open
Susky River Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	600 Rowland Dr	open
The Susky Crab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1000 Rowland Dr	open
Union Hotel Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1282 Susquehanna River Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	4	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	10	7	4	2	1	3	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21904. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21903	3.1 mi	13	2023
21917	4.2 mi	1	2006
21902	4.4 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.