BMIE Market 22124

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,091 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,059 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,743 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±355 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,558 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,834 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$218,380 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,325 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,331 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$998,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,561 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	10.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22124
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+175.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 21–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22124. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.3	87	40%	+34.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.5	73	35%	+25.4
Market Momentum Score	46.6	47	25%	+11.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,091	80	40%	+31.9
Median household income (ACS)	218,380	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	6,743	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15.8	59	35%	+20.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.2	64	25%	+16.0
Population (ACS)	18,091	80	20%	+15.9
Median household income (ACS)	218,380	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	15.8	59	30%	+17.8
20-year restaurant growth	10	40	20%	+7.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Mexican 5 · Pizza 5 · Asian 4 · American 3 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Greek 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Mayan Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10443 White Granite Dr	open
Blossom Daily	Café	Coffee	10467 White Granite Dr	open
Bob Evans Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10443 White Granite Dr	open
California Tortilla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2930 Chain Bridge Rd, Ste 102	open
Chicken Out Rotisserie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2946 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2946 Chain Bridge Rd Ste I	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	2972a Chain Bridge Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2946 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Famous Dave's Bar-B-Que Famous Dave's Bar-B-Que of America	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2910 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Hangry Joe's Hot Chicken & Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Breakfast	2952-A Chain Bridge Rd	open
Hunan Tasty	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	2912-A Chain Bridge Rd	open
Kob Kun Fine Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	2946 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Lucianos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2946 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Mama Tigre	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10443 White Granite Dr	open
Oakton Chesapeake Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	2952 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Oakton Grill & Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	2946 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Oakton Wine Shop & Bistro Llc	Casual dining		2952 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Old Peking Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2952 Chain Bridge Rd Ste C	open
Pho85	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	2952 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Santini's New York Style Deli Santini's New York Style Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	2975 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Settle Down Easy	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		2952 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Souvlaki Bar Souvlaki Bar Consett	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · German / Eastern European	2930 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Squisito Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2912B Chain Bridge Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2930 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2972 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Taco Rock	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2930 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Tequila Grande	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10443 White Granite Dr	open
The Big Greek Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	2930 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Tigris Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2946 Chain Bridge Rd Ste P	open
Tony's NY Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2912B Chain Bridge Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	2918 Chain Bridge Road	open
WNB Factory WNB Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	2952 Chain Bridge Rd Ste H	open
Yalla Pita Yalla Mediterranean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	2946P Chain Bridge Rd	open
Yellow House Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3200 Jermantown Rd	open
Yoko Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2946 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Zinga Frozen Yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2930 Chain Bridge Rd #111	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	15	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	17	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	20	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	19	18	8	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	8	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	21	20	8	10	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	22	20	10	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	21	19	9	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	20	7	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	21	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	23	20	7	10	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	24	21	7	11	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	25	21	6	13	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	24	21	6	13	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	21	18	5	12	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	22	19	6	12	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	21	6	14	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	28	26	9	16	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	29	26	9	16	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	26	24	8	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	24	22	7	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	25	23	9	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	24	9	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	22	10	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	26	15	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	22	11	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22124. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22181	2.3 mi	4	2023
20191	2.9 mi	32	2023
22035	3.2 mi	1	2012
22033	3.3 mi	99	2023
22180	3.9 mi	115	2023
22030	4.0 mi	179	2023
22182	4.2 mi	79	2023
20171	4.2 mi	68	2023
22031	4.5 mi	108	2023
20190	4.5 mi	80	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.