BMIE Market 20191
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 31,011 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,526 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 12,163 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±508 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 29,128 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 12,071 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $151,185 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,673 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 39.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,016 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±123 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $641,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,712 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 7.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20191 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 10.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +10.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -5.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +23.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +540.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 28 (range 24–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20191. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 92.2 | 92 | 40% | +36.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 62.1 | 62 | 35% | +21.7 |
| Market Momentum Score | 49.7 | 50 | 25% | +12.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 31,011 | 90 | 40% | +35.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 151,185 | 96 | 40% | +38.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 12,163 | 89 | 20% | +17.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -5.9 | 21 | 35% | +7.2 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 10.3 | 71 | 25% | +17.8 |
| Population (ACS) | 31,011 | 90 | 20% | +17.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 151,185 | 96 | 20% | +19.2 |
Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 10.3 | 68 | 50% | +34.0 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -5.9 | 21 | 30% | +6.2 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 23.1 | 48 | 20% | +9.5 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (60)
By cuisine
Coffee 11 · Asian 7 · Sandwiches 7 · American 5 · Chinese 4 · Pizza 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Bakery 2 · Indian 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Peruvian 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Quick service 10 · Café 8 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy's Neighborhood Pub | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12411 Brown Fox Way | open | |
| APlus at Sunoco | Coffee shop | Coffee | 11190 South Lakes Dr | open |
| Ariake Japanese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 12184 Glade Dr | open |
| Belinda Cake Shop | Bakery | Bakery | open | |
| Buffalo Wing Factory Buffalo Wing Factory | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Chicken / wings | 2260 Hunters Woods Plaza D | open |
| Burger King | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2270 Hunters Woods Plz | open | |
| Cafe Sano | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 2117 Colts Neck Ct | open |
| Cafesano | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · Pizza · Mediterranean · Italian · Healthy / salads / bowls | 11130 M South Lakes Dr | open |
| Campus Commons Deli Inc | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1900 Campus Commons Dr Ste 120 | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 11160 S Lakes Dr # G2 | open |
| Cosmos Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · American | 1850 Centennial Park Dr | open |
| Dairy Queen | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 2254 Hunters Woods Plz #J | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 2303 Soapstone Dr | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 2280 Hunters Woods Plz | open |
| Flippin' Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 11130 S Lakes Dr | open |
| Harvest and Vine | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 11750 Sunrise Valley Dr | open |
| Hunan Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 2254 Hunters Woods Plaza | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 2254 Hunters Woods Plaza #150 | open |
| King Pollo of Reston King Pollo srl | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings | Hunters Woods Plaza | open |
| Kung Fu Tea Kung Fu Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea · Asian | 2280-A Hunters Woods Plaza | open |
| Lakeside Asia Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 11130 S Lakes Dr | open |
| Laredo Taco Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 11854 Sunrise Valley Dr | open | |
| Ledo Pizza Reston, VA Ledo Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2254 Hunters Woods Plaza | open |
| Loaves and Leaves | Other | Sandwiches | 12018 Sunrise Valley Dr | open |
| Mandiant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 1851 Alexander Bell Dr | open |
| Marietta Restaurant Management Group Corp | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 11850 Sunrise Valley Dr | open | |
| Masti | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 1825 Discovery St | open |
| Meadows Original Frozen Custard The Meadows Original Frozen Custard of Hollidaysburg | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 11130 South Lakes Dr | open |
| MockTenders | Dessert · Bar | Dessert | 11900 Lawyers Rd | open |
| My Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 2000 Edmund Halley Dr | open |
| MyHome Thai Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 11830 Sunrise Valley Dr | open |
| New Age Caterers | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1900 Campus Commons Dr | open | |
| Olive Lebanese Eatery Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Mediterranean | 1881 Campus Commons Dr #100 | open |
| Panera Bread | Coffee shop | Coffee | 2041 Fulton Pl | open |
| Pica Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 11864 Sunrise Valley Dr | open |
| Pista House Indian Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet | Indian | 2316 Hunters Woods Plaza | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 11850 Sunrise Valley Dr | open |
| Red's Table | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 11150 South Lakes Dr | open |
| Reston Farmer's Market | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 11890 Sunrise Valley Dr | open | |
| Reston Swamp | Bar | 2257 Coppersmith Sq | open | |
| Rsr, Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2254 Hunters Woods Plz # A | open | |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 2304 Hunters Woods Plaza Hunter Woods Village Center | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop | Coffee | 11170 S Lakes Dr | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 11160 S. Lakes Dr. Ste D | open |
| Sunrise Cafe | Café | Coffee | 12355 Sunrise Valley Dr Ste 150 | open |
| Super Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian | 11830 Sunrise Valley Dr Ste 600 | open |
| Taste Hub | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12020 Sunrise Valley Dr Ste 100 | open | |
| The Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 2303 Soapstone Dr Ste B | open |
| The Perfect Pita | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1835 Alexander Bell Dr | open | |
| Uncle Fred's BBQ Smoke Shack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 2531 Reston Pkwy | open |
| Uptown Cafe | Café | Coffee | 10805 Parkridge Blvd | open |
| Veloce Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1900 Campus Commons Dr #120 | open |
| Vinifera Wine Bar And Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 11750 Sunrise Valley Dr | open | |
| Whim Pop | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 2501 Fox Mill Rd | open |
| Wine & Spirits Shippers Assn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 11800 Sunrise Valley Dr | open | |
| Zaina's Deli and Cafe | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café | Sandwiches · Greek · Coffee | 11190 Sunrise Valley Dr | open |
| ရှမ်းမလေး | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 2408 Andorra Pl | open |
| Cincinnati Cafe Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2260 Hunters Woods Plz | closed | |
| Roaming Rotisserie | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 11800 Sunrise Valley Dr | closed |
| Uptown Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls | 12007 Sunrise Valley Dr Ste 150 | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 20 | 20 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 24 | 23 | 7 | 14 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 25 | 24 | 10 | 12 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 23 | 22 | 11 | 11 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 29 | 27 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 27 | 25 | 7 | 17 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 31 | 26 | 6 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 36 | 30 | 9 | 18 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 34 | 28 | 8 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 34 | 29 | 9 | 18 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 34 | 31 | 9 | 19 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 36 | 32 | 9 | 19 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 36 | 32 | 9 | 19 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 35 | 31 | 10 | 19 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 35 | 29 | 10 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 33 | 29 | 8 | 16 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 36 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 38 | 35 | 10 | 18 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 36 | 33 | 8 | 21 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 39 | 34 | 7 | 21 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 36 | 31 | 7 | 21 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 34 | 29 | 7 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 39 | 34 | 11 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 39 | 33 | 10 | 17 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 33 | 28 | 9 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 34 | 29 | 10 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 36 | 32 | 8 | 19 | — | — | NAICS2022 |