BMIE Market 20194

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,275 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±750 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,707 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,165 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,900 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$170,988 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,872 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,419 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$827,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,521 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20194
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,200.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20194. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.8	84	40%	+33.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.6	77	35%	+26.8
Market Momentum Score	71.4	71	25%	+17.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,275	74	40%	+29.5
Median household income (ACS)	170,988	98	40%	+39.1
Households (ACS)	5,707	76	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	35%	+24.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.6	70	25%	+17.5
Population (ACS)	12,275	74	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	170,988	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.2	76	50%	+38.0
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	30%	+21.3
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 6 · Chicken / wings 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Peruvian 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bakery 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Bar 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1446 Reston Pkwy North Point Village Center	open
Bb.q Chicken - Reston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1432 Northpoint Village Ctr	open
Bianca Moskaitis	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Bobby's Bagel Cafe	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee · Breakfast	1484 Northpoint Village Ctr	open
Bobby's Bagel Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	1484 Northpoint Village Ctr	open
Boston Market Boston Market	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1492 North Point Village Ctr	open
Call Your Mother Deli - Reston Call Your Mother Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	1484 North Point Village Center	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1494 Northpoint Village Ctr	open
Empanadas De Mendoza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	I, 1478 North Point Village Center	open
Finn Thai Reston Finn Thai Martinsburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1466 North Point Village Center	open
Glory Days Grill Glory Days Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	1400 North Point Village Ctr	open
Gregorio's Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1428 North Point Village Ctr	open
Jerry's Subs & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1432 Northpoint Village Ctr	open
Mandarine Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1675 Reston Pkwy	open
Manhattan Bagel	Bakery	Bakery	1470 Northpoint Village Ctr	open
Matsutake Sushi and Sake Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1492 North Point Village Center	open
Mochinut Reston	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1478 Northpoint Village Ctr	open
Naked Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1675-M Reston Pkwy	open
Pizza Boli's Pizza Boli's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1675 Reston Pkwy	open
Pollo Peru Pollo Peru	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	1675 Reston Pkwy D	open
Silver Diner Silver Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11951 Killingsworth Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1444 North Point Village Center	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1474 Northpoint Village Ctr	open
sweetFrog sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1472 North Point Village Center	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1701 Bracknell Dr	open
California Tortilla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1470 Northpoint Village Ctr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	1	8	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	12	1	8	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	2	7	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	13	1	9	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	—	11	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	—	10	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	—	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	1	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	1	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	1	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	2	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	2	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	15	3	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	14	4	5	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	14	5	5	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	13	3	6	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20194. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20190	1.5 mi	80	2023
20170	2.1 mi	102	2023
22066	3.0 mi	32	2023
20191	3.3 mi	32	2023
20164	3.7 mi	85	2023
22182	4.6 mi	79	2023
20171	4.8 mi	68	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.