BMIE Market 22066

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,185 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,039 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,678 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±288 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,099 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,054 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,310,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83,537 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22066
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+68.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+146.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	34 (range 31–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.66) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22066. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.66, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.7	87	40%	+34.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.3	70	35%	+24.6
Market Momentum Score	73.8	74	25%	+18.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,185	79	40%	+31.5
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	40%	+39.9
Households (ACS)	5,678	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28	70	35%	+24.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.6	41	25%	+10.2
Population (ACS)	17,185	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	20%	+20.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.5	76	50%	+38.1
10-year restaurant growth	28	70	30%	+20.9
20-year restaurant growth	68.4	74	20%	+14.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

Italian 6 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Mediterranean 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · European 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · French 2 · Greek 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Peruvian 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 32 · Quick service 7 · Bar 4 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Autentico - Real Peruvian Flavor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	762 Walker Rd	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9881 VA-193	open
Bollywood Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	9853 VA-193	open
BRX Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1025 Seneca Rd	open
Cheesus Crust	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	10123 Colvin Run Rd	open
Chopstix Chopstix Noodle Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1025 Seneca Rd	open
Cousins Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9867 Georgetown Pike	open
Dante Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	1148 Walker Rd	open
Deli Italiano Deli Italiano	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	9911 Georgetown Pike	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1024 C Seneca Rd	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza	9912B Georgetown Pike	open
El Tío Tex-Mex Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	9835 Georgetown Pike	open
Finn Thai Great Falls Finn Thai Martinsburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	752a Walker Rd	open
Fiore Di Luna	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1025 Seneca Rd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	1024 Seneca Rd	open
Great Falls Creamery	Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery	766 Walker Rd	open
Great Falls Lodge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9835 VA-193	open
Inglish Bar	Bar · Quick service		11259 Inglish Mill Dr	open
Izumi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9861 Georgetown Pike	open
Jacques' Brasserie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	332 Springvale Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1024 Seneca Rd	open
Kabob Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	9904 Georgetown Pike	open
Katie's Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	760 Walker Rd	open
King Creole Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		762 Walker Rd	open
Mediterranee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · French	10123 Colvin Run Rd	open
Mestrourn Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9899 Georgetown Pike	open
Mookie's BBQ	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	1141 Walker Rd	open
Muirfield Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1025 Seneca Rd Ste I	open
Northern Virginia Deli & Restaurant Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9911 Georgetown Pike	open
Old Brogue Irish Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	760 Walker Rd	open
Our Mom Eugenia - Great Falls	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Seafood · Mediterranean	1025 Seneca Rd	open
Peking Delight	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	752 Walker Rd Ste A	open
Pizzarama	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1025 Seneca Rd	open
Postmodern Foods	Quick service		762 Walker Rd Ste B	open
Pure Veg, Great Falls Community Farmers Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	778 Walker Rd	open
Romantic Deli & Pizzaria	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	9906 Old Georgetown Pike	open
Saffron Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	1025 Seneca Rd	open
Serbian Crown Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	1141 Walker Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9863 Georgetown Pike	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	9885 Georgetown Pike # No	open
The Cellar on Seneca	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1025 Seneca Rd	open
Thelo Greek Kuzina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	10123 Colvin Run Rd	open
Toastique Toastique	Café	Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee · Breakfast	9891 Georgetown Pike	open
Village Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Pizza	9899 Old Georgetown Pike	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	21	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	19	14	10	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	18	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	19	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	26	21	11	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	22	19	11	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	27	23	12	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	26	21	10	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	16	8	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	21	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	20	17	8	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	22	19	9	10	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	26	22	10	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	24	20	10	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	32	29	13	11	5	—	NAICS2012
2013	27	25	13	8	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	22	11	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	27	26	14	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	29	28	15	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	25	24	15	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	28	27	16	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	28	27	15	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	29	28	17	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	27	27	15	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	31	31	17	10	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	32	32	18	10	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22066. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20194	3.0 mi	13	2023
20190	4.2 mi	80	2023
20854	4.6 mi	60	2023
20170	4.7 mi	102	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.