BMIE Market 22578

Lancaster County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,353 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±289 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,266 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,510 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,801 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,783 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,629 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,077 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$441,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±101,002 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22578
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22578. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.1	55	40%	+22.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.3	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	85.5	85	25%	+21.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,353	48	40%	+19.1
Median household income (ACS)	80,783	63	40%	+25.3
Households (ACS)	1,266	54	20%	+10.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	35%	+31.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	29.8	20	25%	+5.1
Population (ACS)	2,353	48	20%	+9.6
Median household income (ACS)	80,783	63	20%	+12.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	30%	+26.6
20-year restaurant growth	75	76	20%	+15.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

Seafood 8 · American 6 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Mexican 2 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adrift	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	572 Rappahannock Dr	open
Charlie's Tiki Bar & Grill	Bar		40 Windjammer Ln	open
Chesapeake Doughnut Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery · American	500 Rappahannock Dr	open
Coffee Laboratory	Coffee shop	Coffee	589 Rappahannock Dr	open
Fest Productions Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		327 Old Ferry Rd	open
Fleets Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Hall's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Seafood	304 Mary Ball Rd	open
Horn Harbor House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mexican	201 Summers Ln	open
KC's at Windmill Point Marina	Bar		56 Windjammer Ln	open
Los Compadres - White Stone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	416 Chesapeake Dr	open
Miss Mary Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	758 Rappahannock Dr	open
Nomini Bay Oyster Ranch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	678 Rappahannock Dr	open
Out of the Oven Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	549 Rappahannock Dr	open
Pride of Virginia Bait & Oyster	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3121 Little Bay Rd	open
Rocket Billy's	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	American · Juice / smoothies	851 Rappahannock Dr	open
Sandpiper Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse · American	850 Rappahannock Dr	open
Willaby's Cafe	Café · Catering	Coffee · American	453 Mary Ball Rd	open
Willaby's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	327 Old Ferry Rd	open
Windmill Point Oysters	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	261 Osprey Ln	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2018	5	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22578. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22480	3.6 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.