BMIE Market 22480
Lancaster County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 898 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 553 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±128 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 714 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 601 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $88,438 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,666 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 74.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,046 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±161 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $442,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65,482 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 2.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22480 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 28.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +50.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 5 (range 3–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2008–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22480. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2008–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 48.4 | 48 | 40% | +19.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 55.5 | 55 | 35% | +19.4 |
| Market Momentum Score | 92.1 | 92 | 25% | +23.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 898 | 30 | 40% | +12.1 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 88,438 | 72 | 40% | +28.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 553 | 38 | 20% | +7.7 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 100 | 92 | 35% | +32.2 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 44.5 | 11 | 25% | +2.9 |
| Population (ACS) | 898 | 30 | 20% | +6.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 88,438 | 72 | 20% | +14.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 50 | 90 | 50% | +45.1 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 100 | 92 | 30% | +27.6 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 300 | 97 | 20% | +19.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (12)
By cuisine
Seafood 7 · American 5 · Coffee 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bar 7 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Casual dining 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Quick service 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byrd's Seafood Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | Seafood | 4357 Irvington Rd | open |
| Chesapeake Club-East Room | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Seafood · American | 480 King Carter Dr | open |
| Commodore's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 480 King Carter Dr | open |
| Dog and Oyster Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Quick service | Seafood | 170 White Fences Dr | open |
| Dredge | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Seafood · American | 4357 Irvington Rd | open |
| Fish Hawk Oyster Bar | Casual dining · Bar | Seafood | 480 King Carter Dr | open |
| Salt and Meadow | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 480 King Carter Dr | open |
| The Dog and Oyster Micro Vineyard and Oyster Bar | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 65 Tavern Rd | open | |
| The Local The Local | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 4337 Irvington Rd | open |
| The Office Bistro | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 4346 Irvington Rd | open |
| Vine | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 77 King Carter Dr | open | |
| Vineyard Grove | Winery / distillery / taproom | Irvington Road | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 3 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2022 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |