BMIE Market 22712

Fauquier County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±911 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,006 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±238 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,415 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,013 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,618 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,391 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,389 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±247 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$412,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,813 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	36.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22712
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 8–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22712. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.7	75	40%	+29.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.9	51	35%	+17.8
Market Momentum Score	29.3	29	25%	+7.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,501	70	40%	+28.0
Median household income (ACS)	103,618	83	40%	+33.3
Households (ACS)	3,006	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.6	62	25%	+15.5
Population (ACS)	9,501	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	103,618	83	20%	+16.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	50%	+10.2
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	71.4	75	20%	+15.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

Pizza 4 · American 3 · Italian 3 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	11850 Hall St	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	11069 Marsh Rd	open
El Agave El AGAVE 3	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11083 Marsh Rd	open
El Salvador Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	11084 Marsh Rd	open
Great Wall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6362 Village Center Dr	open
Joe's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	11139 Marsh Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11133 Marsh Rd	open
M & P Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	12975 Marsh Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11027 Marsh Rd	open
Morais Vineyards & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		11409 Marsh Rd	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10997 Marsh Rd	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	10997 Marsh Rd	open
Sabores Del Sur	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6366 Village Center Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	11830 Hall St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11077 Marsh Road Unit C	open
Taqueria Jasmine Taqueria Taxco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	6370 Village Center Dr	open
Unique Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	11335 Whipkey Dr	open
Vinny's Grill & Pizzeria Vinny's Italian Grill & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	11085 Marsh Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22712. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22734	3.6 mi	3	2023
22728	4.1 mi	1	1995

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.