BMIE Market 22734

Fauquier County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,918 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±644 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,519 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±238 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,187 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,172 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,389 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,675 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±462 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$373,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,437 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22734
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 2010 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 2–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22734. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.0	59	40%	+23.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.5	57	35%	+19.8
Market Momentum Score	39.2	39	25%	+9.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,918	57	40%	+22.6
Median household income (ACS)	80,389	63	40%	+25.1
Households (ACS)	1,519	56	20%	+11.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.7	82	25%	+20.4
Population (ACS)	3,918	57	20%	+11.3
Median household income (ACS)	80,389	63	20%	+12.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+26.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+13.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (8)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · BBQ 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Bar 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Andes Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	12209 James Madison St	open
Liz’s Succulent Soulfood LLC	Food truck		11532 James Madison St	open
Moo Thru	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	11402 James Madison Hwy	open
Pelham's Pub	Bar		16589 Edwards Shop Rd	open
Shawn's Gourmet Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		204 E Main St	open
Shawn's Smokehouse BBQ Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	204 E Main St Ste 189	open
The Corner Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	100 James Madison St	open
The Lounge at Craft & Crust	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	204 E Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2010	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22734. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22712	3.6 mi	12	2023
22714	4.5 mi	1	2016
22718	4.8 mi	1	2014

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.