BMIE Market 23114

Chesterfield County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,631 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,657 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±447 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,449 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,719 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$112,738 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,369 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,711 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$409,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,923 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23114
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+550.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,200.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	79 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23114. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.7	85	40%	+33.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86.4	86	35%	+30.2
Market Momentum Score	78.5	79	25%	+19.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,631	83	40%	+33.1
Median household income (ACS)	112,738	88	40%	+35.1
Households (ACS)	8,657	83	20%	+16.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	62.5	87	35%	+30.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.0	88	25%	+22.0
Population (ACS)	21,631	83	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	112,738	88	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	62.5	87	30%	+26.0
20-year restaurant growth	550	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Coffee 3 · Japanese 3 · Pizza 3 · Sushi 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Mexican 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Dessert 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 6 · Quick service 5 · Specialty food shop 3 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Brew Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	11 Le Gordon Dr	open
A NY Slice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Pizza	133 Browns Way Rd	open
Ben Wong's Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Tea / bubble tea · Dessert · Coffee	100 Heaths Way Rd	open
Burger Bach	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	101 Heaths Way Rd	open
Capital Ale House Capital Ale House Fredericksburg	Casual dining · Bar		13831 Village Place Dr	open
Capriotti's Sandwich Shop Capriotti's Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	35 Le Gordon Dr	open
Dominos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	825 Grove Rd	open
Game Plan Kitchen + Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	101 Heaths Way Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	100 Heaths Way Rd	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	13905 Midlothian Turnpike	open
Jo Jo's Pizza South	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	133 Browns Way Rd	open
Katana Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	13825 Village Place Dr	open
Moes Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	13901 Midlothian Turnpike	open
OTooles Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	13919 Midlothian Turnpike	open
POKE ME - midlothian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho · Hawaiian / Pacific · Sushi · Japanese · Healthy / salads / bowls	117 Browns Way Rd 2nd floor	open
Porters Mill Brewery LLC	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1918 Porters Mill Rd	open
RED'S	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1312 Clemons Way	open
Rutba Indian kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	13822 Village Place Dr	open
Sedona Taphouse Sedona Taphouse - Virginia Beach, VA	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		12606 Walton Ridge Ln	open
The Urban Farmhouse Market and Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	13872 Coalfield Commons Pl	open
Two Compadres Taqueria Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	13859 Village Place Dr	open
Waters Edge Winery Midlothian	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Charter Park Dr	open
Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	13822 Village Place Dr	open
Zaytinya	Restaurant (service type not stated)		719 9th St Nw	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	200 Charter Colony Pkwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	—	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	5	1	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	7	1	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	11	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	13	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	11	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23114. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23112	3.5 mi	111	2023
23113	4.1 mi	81	2023
23236	4.2 mi	31	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.