BMIE Market 23236
Chesterfield County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 27,903 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,665 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 10,761 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±552 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 25,822 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,219 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $110,499 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,617 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 40.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,811 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±168 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $346,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,072 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 14.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 31 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23236 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +14.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -3.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +29.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +82.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 33 (range 28–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.15) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 53 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23236. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.15, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 87.0 | 87 | 40% | +34.8 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 59.5 | 59 | 35% | +20.8 |
| Market Momentum Score | 53.3 | 53 | 25% | +13.3 |
Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 27,903 | 87 | 40% | +34.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 110,499 | 87 | 40% | +34.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 10,761 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -3.1 | 22 | 35% | +7.7 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 11.1 | 68 | 25% | +17.0 |
| Population (ACS) | 27,903 | 87 | 20% | +17.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 110,499 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 53 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 14.8 | 73 | 50% | +36.5 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -3.1 | 22 | 30% | +6.6 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 29.2 | 52 | 20% | +10.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (57)
By cuisine
American 11 · Coffee 8 · Pizza 7 · Asian 5 · Bakery 4 · BBQ 3 · Breakfast 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Sushi 2 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Seafood 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Quick service 10 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber Asian | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 11501 Busy St | open |
| Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 900 Moorefield Park Drive | open |
| Arc Restaurant Design & Brokerage | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9947 Hull Street Rd # 226 | open | |
| BARrighi | Bar | 420 Shakedown Street | open | |
| Basically Halal | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 316 N Arch Rd Ste A | open | |
| Biltmore Donuts | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee | 462 Southlake Blvd | open |
| Birmie's Fixins | Juice, smoothie, tea | BBQ · Juice / smoothies · American | 9811 Swansea Rd | open |
| Captain D's Captain D's | Quick service | Seafood · American | 10013 Hull St | open |
| China Taste | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 1108 Courthouse Rd | open |
| Cicis Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 11549 Busy St | open |
| Crazy Greek | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek | 11500 Busy St | open |
| Denny's | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Breakfast · Coffee · American | 11161 Research Plaza Way | open |
| Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 9451 Hull Street Rd | open |
| Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 11556 Busy St, Courthouse Place | open |
| Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 11553 Busy St | open |
| Fork And Vine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 9901 Midlothian Tpke | open |
| Gardenia's Bakery | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Vietnamese · Coffee | 1020 Arkay Dr | open |
| Golden Corral Golden Corral Buffet & Grill | Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 11 S Providence Rd | open |
| Hibachi & Sushi Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 9901 Hull Street Rd | open |
| Inter China Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Chinese · Sushi · Asian | 11512 Busy St | open |
| iThaiz Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 1108 Courthouse Rd Ste A | open |
| Karen's Diner | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3501 Courthouse Rd | open |
| Kinda's Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 441 Comstock Dr | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1120 Courthouse Road | open |
| La Palma Bakery & Latino Market | Bakery | Bakery · Latin American (other) | 9939, 9941 Hull St | open |
| Latin Quarter | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | Latin American (other) | 3511 Courthouse Rd | open |
| Le Box Lunch | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 300 Arboretum Pl Ste 150 | open | |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 321 N Arch Rd | open |
| Mac Pizza & Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 11552 Busy St | open |
| Midlothian Chef's Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 11501 Busy St | open |
| Mugshot Coffee & Cafe | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee · Breakfast | 3505 Courthouse Rd | open |
| Nascar Refuel | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9545 Amberdale Dr | open | |
| Nuccio's Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Italian · Sandwiches | 1108 Courthouse Rd Ste O | open |
| Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 9811 Hull St | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 111 Wadsworth Dr Chesterfield | open |
| Plaza Azteca Plaza Azteca, Methuen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 11500 Busy St | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 9961 Hull Street Rd | open |
| Rykas Garden & Kitchen | Bakery | Bakery | 2609 Torquay Loop | open |
| Shane's Rib Shack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 11501 Busy St | open |
| Shoney's Shoney's Restaurants | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 9963 Hull Street Rd | open |
| Shorty’s Diner - Richmond | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast | 11161 Research Plaza Way | open |
| Smallcakes | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 11516 Busy St | open |
| Southern Taste Diner | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9951 Hull Street Rd | open | |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 1118 Courthouse | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 10009 Hull Street Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 9919 Hull St Rd Units 20 | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 12751 Stone Village Way | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 11513 Busy Street | open |
| Virginia BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 11553 Busy St | open |
| Vocelli Pizza Vocelli Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 9927 Hull Street Rd | open |
| Wallowa RiverSand | Catering | American | Services Available In: | open |
| Wong’s Tacos - Midlothian Wong’s Tacos - Short Pump | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1106 Mansfield Crossing Rd | open | |
| Yoojis Asian Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9951 Hull Street Rd | open | |
| Your Place Sports Bar & Grill | Bar | 101 Wadsworth Dr | open | |
| Baker's Kitchen | Bakery | Bakery | 3503 Courthouse Rd | closed |
| Polar Roller Llc | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 730 Research Rd Ste C | closed |
| Wen-rich Inc | Quick service | 812 Moorefield Park Dr Ste 304 | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 17 | 17 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 18 | 18 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 17 | 17 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 17 | 16 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 23 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 23 | 23 | 10 | 11 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 10 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 24 | 24 | 9 | 14 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 21 | 21 | 8 | 12 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 24 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 21 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 31 | 30 | 10 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 33 | 31 | 8 | 20 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 33 | 31 | 12 | 16 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 34 | 32 | 11 | 17 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 33 | 29 | 11 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 30 | 26 | 9 | 13 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 30 | 27 | 9 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 35 | 30 | 10 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 32 | 27 | 8 | 14 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 32 | 27 | 8 | 14 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 38 | 31 | 10 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 34 | 31 | 10 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 38 | 33 | 13 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 36 | 31 | 12 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2022 |