BMIE Market 23238
Goochland County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 26,050 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,644 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 11,173 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±612 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 25,134 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 11,598 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $101,523 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,488 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,735 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±71 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $420,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,149 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 21.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23238 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 7.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -5.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -9.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +533.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +1,800.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 26 (range 20–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23238. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 84.7 | 85 | 40% | +33.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 60.9 | 61 | 35% | +21.3 |
| Market Momentum Score | 36.7 | 37 | 25% | +9.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 26,050 | 86 | 40% | +34.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 101,523 | 82 | 40% | +32.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 11,173 | 88 | 20% | +17.5 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -9.5 | 19 | 35% | +6.5 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 7.3 | 83 | 25% | +20.8 |
| Population (ACS) | 26,050 | 86 | 20% | +17.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 101,523 | 82 | 20% | +16.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 37 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -5 | 23 | 50% | +11.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -9.5 | 19 | 30% | +5.6 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 533.3 | 99 | 20% | +19.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (65)
By cuisine
Coffee 13 · American 8 · Pizza 7 · European 5 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · BBQ 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · French 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Seafood 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Café 10 · Coffee shop 10 · Quick service 9 · Bar 6 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Casual dining 3 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander's BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 1126 Westbriar Dr | open |
| Arby's Arby's | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 11298 Patterson Avenue | open |
| Beirut Bites | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 12391 Gayton Rd | open |
| Burma Sushi and Salad To Go Salad and Go | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southeast Asian (other) · Sushi · Japanese · Asian | 11216 Patterson Ave | open |
| Caffespresso | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 1127 Gaskins Rd | open |
| Capital One Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 15080 Capital One Dr | open |
| Chez Max Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | French · European | 10622 Patterson Ave | open |
| Chianti Richmond | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · European | 1304 Gaskins Rd | open |
| Chick-fil-A | Quick service | 15010 Capital One Dr | open | |
| City Lights of China | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Noodles / ramen / pho · Seafood · Asian | 12391 Gayton Rd | open |
| Daddio's Grille | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 12385 Gayton Rd | open |
| Dairy Queen | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 11210 Patterson Ave | open |
| Deep Run Roadhouse | Catering | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 12379 Gayton Rd | open |
| DeLuca Gelato | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 1362 Gaskins Rd | open |
| Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza · Chicken / wings | 10614 Patterson Ave | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 10600 Patterson Ave | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert · Bakery | 15010 Capital One Dr Bldg 2 | open |
| Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels | Bakery | Bakery · Breakfast | 1368 Gaskins Rd | open |
| Empanadas Argentinas La Costanera | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 1647 Congressional Ct | open |
| Empanadas Market | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Latin American (other) · Sandwiches | 1110 Westbriar Dr | open |
| Eurasia Cafe & Wine Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1308 Gaskins Rd | open |
| European Taste | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | European · American | 10604 Patterson Ave | open |
| Fairuz Cafe | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 11254 Patterson Ave | open |
| Federal Reserve West Crk | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12560 West Creek Pkwy | open | |
| Frank's West Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 11238 Patterson Ave | open |
| Fu Jian | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 9720 Gayton Rd | open |
| Gayton Pizza & Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Chicken / wings · American | 9742 Gayton Rd | open |
| Greek Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek · Mediterranean · European | 11214 Patterson Ave | open |
| Hardywood Park Craft Brewery - West Creek Hardywood | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 820 Sanctuary Trail Dr | open | |
| Hickory & Oak | Food truck | 10614 Patterson Ave | open | |
| HOPE Café | Café · Coffee shop | Coffee | 12445 Patterson Ave | open |
| Hutch Bar & Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1308 Gaskins Rd | open |
| J. Roccos Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Pizza | 2500 Gayton Centre Dr | open |
| Jadeans Smokin Six O BBQ | Food truck | BBQ · American | 1126 Westbriar Dr | open |
| Kalinka International Deli | Restaurant (service type not stated) | German / Eastern European | 1326 Gaskins Rd | open |
| Kindred Spirit Brewing | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 12830 W Creek Pkwy | open | |
| Les Crepes | Café | Breakfast · French · Coffee | 1308 Gaskins Rd | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 12410 GAYTON RD | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 9730 Gayton Rd | open |
| Louisville Fondue, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9704 Gayton Rd | open | |
| McAlister's Deli McAlister's Deli | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 1300 Gaskins Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 11280 Patterson Ave | open |
| Murat's Institute and Cafe | Café | Coffee | 12456 Gayton Rd | open |
| Peet's Coffee & Tea | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 15075 Capital One Dr | open |
| Performance Foodservice | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12500 West Creek Pkwy | open | |
| Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1112 Westbriar Dr | open |
| Portico Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Mexican | 12506 River Rd | open |
| Pronto Food Service Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2500 Gayton Centre Dr | open | |
| Rare Olde Times | Bar | British / Irish pub food | 10602 Patterson Ave | open |
| Rpmm Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12506 River Rd | open | |
| Shawarma Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12422 Gayton Rd | open | |
| Shoreline Seafood Market | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 10614 Patterson Ave | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 15010 Capital One Dr (Capital One - Bu, Ilding 3) | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 15075 Capital One Dr | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 1302-B Gaskins Rd | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 15035 Capital One Dr | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 11240 Patterson Ave # 11250 | open |
| The Melting Pot The Melting Pot | Restaurant (service type not stated) | European | 9704 Gayton Rd | open |
| The Smoothie Spot | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 1366 Gaskins Rd | open |
| The Verdant Lady | Bar | Spanish / tapas | 1310 Gaskins Rd | open |
| Thg - Patterson, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10600 Patterson Ave | open | |
| WayGone Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | 10612 Patterson Ave | open | |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 11274 Patterson Ave | open |
| West Lake Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 11256 Patterson Ave | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 11234 Patterson Ave | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 3 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 20 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 28 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 38 | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 35 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 33 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 36 | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 40 | 24 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 44 | 23 | 8 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 56 | 28 | 10 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 56 | 27 | 10 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 41 | 27 | 9 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 39 | 24 | 9 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 33 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |