BMIE Market 23459

Virginia Beach city, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,324 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±72 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,091 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	270 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	22.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	1.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23459
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 4–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (10 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	25 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	91 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23459. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	25.1	25	40%	+10.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.3	57	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	90.5	91	25%	+22.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 25 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,324	37	40%	+24.7
Households (ACS)	0	1	20%	+0.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	400	100	35%	+43.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	37.8	14	25%	+4.5
Population (ACS)	1,324	37	20%	+9.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 91 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+53.2
10-year restaurant growth	400	100	30%	+37.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (8)

By cuisine

Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Quick service 5 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Navy Exchange, 1170 Amphibious Dr	open
Manchu Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Little Creek	open
McFaul Lounge Chiefs Club	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1432 Hewitt Dr	open
Nrgize NrGize Lifestyle Cafe	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Specialty food shop · Café	Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1611 Midway Rd	open
Panda Express	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1170 Amphibious Dr Bldg #3443	open
Sbarro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1170 Amphibious Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1170 Amphibious Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3600 D St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2009	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23459. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23518	2.4 mi	67	2023
23455	2.8 mi	122	2023
23513	4.1 mi	24	2023
23502	4.3 mi	91	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.