BMIE Market 23662

Poquoson city, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,639 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,728 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±108 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,150 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,726 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,972 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,412 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,707 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±129 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$400,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,247 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23662
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+21.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+9.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+27.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+35.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 21–31) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23662. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.6	81	40%	+32.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.2	62	35%	+21.8
Market Momentum Score	65.3	65	25%	+16.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,639	74	40%	+29.7
Median household income (ACS)	120,972	91	40%	+36.3
Households (ACS)	4,728	73	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	9.5	54	35%	+18.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.2	42	25%	+10.5
Population (ACS)	12,639	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	120,972	91	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	21.1	78	50%	+39.1
10-year restaurant growth	9.5	54	30%	+16.1
20-year restaurant growth	27.8	51	20%	+10.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 7 · Burgers 4 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Seafood 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Casual dining 8 · Bar 6 · Quick service 6 · Dessert 5 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1631 Burgers Bourbon and Brew	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	464 B Wythe Creek Rd	open
185 185	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	185 Little Florida Rd	open
Ack's Place	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		8 Victory Blvd	open
Anna's Pizza & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	Wythe Creek Plaza Shopping Center, 464 Wythe Creek Rd D	open
Bean's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	475 Wythe Creek Rd Ste M	open
Blue Crab & Purple Pig Bistro	Casual dining		8 Victory Blvd	open
Bull Island Bistro Poquoson	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	100 Carys Chapel Rd	open
C J Concessions	Restaurant (service type not stated)		306 Wythe Creek Rd	open
C's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	493 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Chef Lu Chinese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	456 Wythe Creek Rd Ste A	open
Chiri's Latin Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	456 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Christine’s Cake Boutique, LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	Business, 423 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Common Ground Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	831 Poquoson Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	476 Wythe Creek Rd Ste A	open
El Rancho Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	475 Wythe Creek Rd	open
George's Restaurant	Bar		413 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Hong Kong Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		423 Wythe Creek Rd Ste B	open
Just Ice- Poquoson Ice House	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	460 Wythe Creek Rd	open
KB's Frozen Custard	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	550 Wythe Creek Rd	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings	8 Victory Blvd Route 171	open
Little Philly Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	475 Wythe Creek Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	431 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Pangaea Coffee Emporium	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	200 Fountains Ln	open
Pelican's Snoballs	Dessert		550 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Plum Tree Island Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	413 Messick Rd	open
Poquoson Diner	Casual dining	American · Seafood	480 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Scorpio's Deli	Casual dining	American	185 Little Florida Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	423 Wythe Creek Road Ste D	open
Surf Rider Surf Rider Grill, Marina Shores	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	105 Rens Rd	open
The Barking Dog	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	464B Wythe Creek Rd	open
The Corner Bistro & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 Fountains Ln	open
The Point Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)		435 Messick Rd	open
The Poquoson Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	464 Wythe Creek Rd	open
TJ's Sports Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		413 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	475 Wythe Creek Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	454 Wythe Creek Rd.	open
Beach Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	487a Wythe Creek Rd Unit D	closed
R&r Seafood Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8 Victory Blvd	closed
Victor's Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		402 Wythe Creek Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	20	19	13	5	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	14	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	18	18	12	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	18	18	11	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	18	18	11	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	20	19	13	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	21	20	14	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	21	15	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	17	11	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	18	16	11	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	22	20	11	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	22	20	11	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	21	19	12	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	22	20	12	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	23	21	12	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	26	23	12	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	24	21	13	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	21	19	12	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	21	19	11	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	19	11	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	29	26	15	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	24	13	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	28	26	16	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	24	16	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	23	13	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23662. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23681	3.0 mi	—
23665	3.4 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.