BMIE Market 23690

York County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,597 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±555 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,497 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±202 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,032 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,176 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,644 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,099 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	30.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$947 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$361,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,636 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23690
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	32 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23690. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.1	60	40%	+24.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.6	50	35%	+17.4
Market Momentum Score	31.7	32	25%	+7.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,597	59	40%	+23.6
Median household income (ACS)	80,644	63	40%	+25.2
Households (ACS)	1,497	56	20%	+11.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.2	52	25%	+13.0
Population (ACS)	4,597	59	20%	+11.8
Median household income (ACS)	80,644	63	20%	+12.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-22.2	12	50%	+6.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	75	76	20%	+15.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Café 5 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aromas 1781 Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	200 Water St	open
Beach Delly	Specialty food shop · Brewery / taproom · Quick service	Sandwiches	524 Water St	open
Ben & Jerry's Ben & Jerry's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	332 Water St	open
Carrot Tree Kitchens Carrot Tree Kitchens	Other · Bakery · Café	Sandwiches · Bakery · Coffee · American	323 Water St	open
Chef K Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	702 Main St	open
Coastal Thirst Beach Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Food truck	Sandwiches	524 Water St	open
Cyber Cafe	Café	Coffee	U S Coast Guard Training Center, 1	open
Jordan's Pizza, Subs, & Much More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	2200 Old Williamsburg Rd	open
Liberty Lounge II	Bar		U S Coast Guard Training Center, 1	open
Mobjack Bay Coffee Roasters and Petite Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	411 Main St	open
Noble Romans Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	376 Spring Rd # 4260	open
River Fruit Tropical Wines	Bar		327 Water St	open
Riverwalk Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Seafood · Coffee · American	323 Water St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Coast Guard Exchange, Bldg	open
Sweet Kee's, LLC	Dessert			open
Umi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	327 Water St	open
Van's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2210 Old Williamsburg Rd	open
Water Street Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	323 Water St	open
Yorktown Pub	Bar · Casual dining		540 Water St	open
Steph's Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · American	2200 Old Williamsburg Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23690. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23062	3.0 mi	6	2023
23603	3.2 mi	3	2018
23691	4.0 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.