BMIE Market 23801

Prince George County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,993 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±583 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,290 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±216 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,393 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	866 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,885 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	21.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,879 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±76 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	6.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23801
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	91 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23801. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	64.5	65	40%	+25.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79.9	80	35%	+28.0
Market Momentum Score	90.5	91	25%	+22.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,993	69	40%	+27.7
Median household income (ACS)	82,563	65	40%	+26.1
Households (ACS)	1,290	54	20%	+10.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.6	90	25%	+22.4
Population (ACS)	8,993	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	82,563	65	20%	+13.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Quick service 10 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Charleys Cheesesteaks Charleys Cheesesteaks	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Mexican · American	300 A AVE	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	300 A AVE	open
Eiffel Café Bakery	Café · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	Hidden Hills	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery · Coffee shop	Bakery · Coffee	562 Quarters Rd Bldg 12420	open
Fort Lee Clubs Regimental/HideAway/R&R	Bar		2609 Carver Ave	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's	Quick service		300 Adams Ave, Bldg 1605	open
HideAway	Bar		15013 5th St	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Sandwiches	1431 Mahone Ave	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	300 A Ave 1605 Building	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Quick service		4309 Lee Ave	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1431 Mahone Avenue	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1431 Mahone Ave	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	(military Post Access Required) 1650 A Ave	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1431 Mahone Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	300 A Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	300 AdamsAve bldg. 1605 Fort G, AAFES Food Court	open
Subway	Quick service		300 Adamsave Bldg. 1605 Fort G	open
Sustainers’ Pub	Bar · Casual dining		2301 Lee Ave	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1431 Mahone Ave Bldg 9026	open
Wikked Ground Coffee	Coffee shop · Food truck	Coffee	1431 Mahone Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	6	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23801. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23875	4.4 mi	16	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.