BMIE Market 23875

Prince George County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,029 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,098 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±438 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,878 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,477 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,543 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,635 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,397 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±185 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$271,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±32,241 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23875
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+128.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+77.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 13–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23875. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.4	66	40%	+26.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.3	67	35%	+23.6
Market Momentum Score	71.2	71	25%	+17.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,029	75	40%	+29.8
Median household income (ACS)	74,543	54	40%	+21.8
Households (ACS)	5,000	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.3	63	25%	+15.8
Population (ACS)	13,029	75	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	74,543	54	20%	+10.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	128.6	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Mexican 6 · Pizza 5 · Chinese 3 · Italian 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Japanese 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 5 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amore Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4006 Prince George Dr	open
Appomattox River Wine Festival	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1604 Fine St	open
Baked!	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	1604 Fine St	open
Bamboo Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4002 Prince George Dr	open
Big Hubert’s Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	4310 Puddledock Rd	open
Dragon Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4201 Crossings Blvd	open
Hokkaido Japanese Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Steakhouse · Asian	4217 Crossings Blvd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6310 Courthouse Rd	open
Jimmys Grill & Pizzeria	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Italian	5380 Oaklawn Blvd Ste A	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6336 Courthouse Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Chicken / wings	5803 Prince George Dr	open
Los Tios	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3815 Jefferson Park Rd	open
Luca Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6411 Courthouse Rd	open
Mamasitas Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3815 Jefferson Park Rd	open
Morelia Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6619 Courthouse Rd	open
Primos Mexican Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4130 Crossings Blvd	open
Sebera's Custard Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6335 Courthouse Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5803 Prince George Dr	open
Sweet Indulgences Bakery, LLC	Bakery	Bakery	180 Thrush St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5324 Oaklawn Blvd	open
Taqueria Herrera	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5002 Oaklawn Blvd	open
Teriyaki Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6815 Commons Dr	open
The Bottom Line Sports Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5380 Oaklawn Blvd	open
Tilted Kilt Tilted Kilt Pub and Eatery	Bar · Casual dining		2070 Waterside Rd	open
Wendy's	Quick service		5803 Prince George Dr	open
What-A-Burger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	1901 Advantage Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	3	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	3	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	3	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	17	4	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	14	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	16	5	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23875. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23860	3.5 mi	45	2023
23801	4.4 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.