BMIE Market 28621

Surry County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,403 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±738 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,126 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±351 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,472 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,858 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$53,616 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,823 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$783 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$159,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	67.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	35 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28621
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	24.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+9.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+45.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	34 (range 30–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.31) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28621. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.31, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.1	50	40%	+20.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.3	40	35%	+14.1
Market Momentum Score	63.8	64	25%	+16.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,403	70	40%	+28.0
Median household income (ACS)	53,616	20	40%	+7.9
Households (ACS)	4,126	71	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	9.4	53	35%	+18.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	37.2	15	25%	+3.7
Population (ACS)	9,403	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	53,616	20	20%	+3.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.9	71	50%	+35.5
10-year restaurant growth	9.4	53	30%	+16.0
20-year restaurant growth	45.8	61	20%	+12.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (83)

By cuisine

American 13 · Coffee 10 · Pizza 9 · Sandwiches 6 · Mexican 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Seafood 4 · Steakhouse 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Chinese 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Korean 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 40 · Quick service 18 · Bar 16 · Winery / distillery / taproom 10 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Bakery 5 · Casual dining 5 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Dessert 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Other 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
268 Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Steakhouse	709 NC Highway 268 W	open
A Sip of the South	Winery / distillery / taproom		100 E Main St	open
Adagio Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		139 Benge Dr	open
Amalfi's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	544 Cc Camp Rd Ste 500	open
Angry Troll Brewing Elkin	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		222 E Main St	open
Asian Buffet	Buffet	Asian · Chinese	1432 N Bridge St	open
Blue Oregano of Elkin	Quick service	Greek	2187 N Bridge St	open
Blue Ridge Bread Company	Bakery · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies	1300 N Bridge St	open
Bon Bon's	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	2113 N Bridge St	open
Bridge Street Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2187 N Bridge St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1403 N Bridge St	open
Carolina Heritage Vineyard and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		170 Heritage Vines Way	open
Cars & Coffee Elkin, NC	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	541 CC Camp Rd	open
Christian Paul Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		156 Tuscan Wy	open
Coffee House Diner Coffee House Diner # 905	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · American · Breakfast	411 CC Camp Rd	open
Cook Out	Quick service		1425 N Bridge St	open
Courage 25	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3951 S 19th St	open
Cowboy Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse · Seafood	961 N Bridge St	open
Creamy Dayz at River & Trails Emporium	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	112 E Main St	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service			open
Delivery King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	960 N Bridge St	open
Dirty Joe's North	Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee · American	1829 N Bridge St	open
Dodge City Steakhouse Elkin	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	2001 N Bridge St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	835 N Brdige St	open
Donna Kaye's Sandwich Shoppe	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	120 E Main St	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	626 Cc Camp Rd Wilcohess	open
Elkin Creek Vineyard and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		318 Elkin Creek Mill Rd	open
Embark Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1635 N Bridge St	open
Embers Eclectic Pub	Bar		106 E Main St	open
Fiddles Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		223 W Main St	open
Freakshows Burgers Wings and Burritos	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2165 N Bridge St	open
Fruition	Bar		223 W Main St	open
Harry's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	135 Front St	open
Hot Spot Coffee	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	1944 N Bridge St	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	929 Roaring Gap Church Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2359 Zephyr Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	623 Austin Traphill Rd	open
Hunt’s Homestyle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	260 Standard St	open
Hurt Estate Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		241 Spice Farm Way	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	544 CC Camp Road Suite 500	open
John Boy's BBQ & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	796 NC-268	open
KFC KFC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	1485 N Bridge St	open
La Bodega Latina Tienda y Restaurante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	1404 N Bridge St	open
La Fuente La-Fuente	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	1623 N Bridge St	open
Matty's Homestyle Cooking & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1111 N Bridge St	open
Mazzini's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1521 N Bridge St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	479 Cc Camp Road	open
Mcritchie Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		114 Circle Ct	open
Mexico Viejo Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	544 CC Camp Rd	open
Olive Garden, Wilkesboro Nc Olive Garden Italian Food Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza		open
Palatable 81	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Korean	159 1st St	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1635 N Bridge St	open
Pirates Landing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse	161 Interstate Way	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1039 N Bridge St Surry	open
Prime Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	642 N Bridge St	open
Round Here Farms	Winery / distillery / taproom		189 Golf Course Rd	open
Roxxi and Lulu's Bistro and Bakery	Casual dining		280 Standard St	open
Royalls BBQ & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	128 W Main St	open
Shiki of Elkin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	1455 N Bridge St	open
Simply Chic Elkin	Quick service		111 W Main St	open
Skull Camp Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2000 N Bridge St	open
Skull Camp Brewing	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		2000 N. Bridge St.	open
Slightly Askew Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		913 N Bridge St	open
SONIC Drive In	Quick service		1425 N Bridge St	open
Southern On Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	102 E Main St	open
Speedy Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Hot dogs · American	685 N Bridge St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	543 CC Camp Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1428 N Bridge St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	548 CC Camp Rd	open
Taco Bell	Quick service		2187 N Bridge St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	551 CC Camp Road	open
Talia Espresso Elkin Drive-Thru Talia Espresso	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	616 CC Camp Rd	open
The Barking Coyote Kitchen	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	205 S Bridge St	open
The Capstone Lounge	Bar		227 E Main St	open
The Mango Peel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1019 N Bridge St	open
The RailYard	Bar		203 W Depot Alley	open
The Wild Flour Bistro	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1300 N Bridge St Ste 102	open
The Wisdom Table	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 E Main St	open
The Yellow Door Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)		280 Standard St	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	540 Cc Camp Rd	open
Heaven's Scent Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		260 Standard St	closed
Royall's Soda Shop Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	128 W Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	25	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	28	28	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	28	27	19	8	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	29	26	17	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	25	22	13	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	26	22	14	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	28	25	13	12	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	27	24	12	12	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	31	27	17	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	27	24	15	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	28	24	14	9	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	27	25	14	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	27	25	15	8	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	27	25	15	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	28	26	17	9	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	29	27	15	12	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	30	28	16	11	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	34	32	19	11	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	32	30	18	11	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	30	28	16	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	32	28	14	11	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	36	32	19	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	34	31	18	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	35	31	17	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	34	31	18	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	35	32	17	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	31	15	13	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	39	35	17	14	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28621. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28642	3.9 mi	12	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.