BMIE Market 28638

Caldwell County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,363 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±985 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,671 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±370 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,302 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,384 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,135 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,393 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$711 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±68 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$207,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,608 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28638
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+46.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+90.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+111.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 20–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.90) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	78 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28638. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.90, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.2	61	40%	+24.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.8	64	35%	+22.3
Market Momentum Score	77.7	78	25%	+19.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,363	74	40%	+29.5
Median household income (ACS)	67,135	43	40%	+17.0
Households (ACS)	4,671	73	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	46.2	79	35%	+27.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	12,363	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	67,135	43	20%	+8.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.8	76	50%	+38.2
10-year restaurant growth	46.2	79	30%	+23.8
20-year restaurant growth	90	79	20%	+15.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

American 9 · Burgers 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Japanese 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · French 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Quick service 6 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Drinks Down Beverage Co.	Bar		145 Cedar Valley Rd	open
Anywhere'z Fine BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	112 Legion Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2763 Hickory Blvd	open
BBQ Man	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2608 Hickory Blvd	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2800 Hickory Blvd.	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2790 Hickory Blvd	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	2804 Hickory Blvd	open
Dari Frez	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Burgers	137 Main St	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	171 Main St	open
Donna's Cafe Donna's Cross Keys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	132 Fairway Shopping Center	open
Fuji Japanese Seafood and Steak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Steakhouse · Seafood	588 Central St	open
Fumiyoshi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	3086 Hickory Blvd	open
J & H Dist.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		398 Mt Herman Rd	open
Just Roll With It	Other	Sandwiches	107 Fairway Ave	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	640 Main Street	open
LC Coffee Shack, LLC.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	Fairway Shopping Center	open
LolliPop's Candy Shoppe	Dessert		536 Central St	open
Mali Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	3412 Hickory Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	301 Mt Herman Rd	open
Mom's Country Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	3412 Hickory Blvd	open
Mystic Maple Farms	Bakery	Bakery	323 Maple St	open
Rise of the Fallen Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom		107 Fairway Ave	open
Roma Pizza Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	3068 Hickory Blvd	open
Six Waterpots Vineyard and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4040 James Dr	open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3086 Hickory Blvd	open
The Allard Bakery and Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · French · American	540 Central St	open
The Local Bean	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	120 Cedar Valley Rd	open
The Picnic Basket	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	3339 Hickory Blvd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3075 Hickory Blvd	open
Yellow Sub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	564 Central St	open
Vintage Cafe & Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		540 Central St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	14	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	15	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	13	2	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	15	3	11	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	17	5	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	3	13	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	19	8	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28638. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28630	3.4 mi	20	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.