BMIE Market 32081

St. Johns County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	29,784 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,378 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,657 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±667 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,524 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,704 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$131,624 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,699 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$642,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37,705 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32081
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+41.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+500.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,100.0% DERIVED: 2009 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	37 (range 32–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.4 per year, r² 0.93) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	91 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32081. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.93, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	90.2	90	40%	+36.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	91.3	91	35%	+32.0
Market Momentum Score	92.3	92	25%	+23.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	29,784	89	40%	+35.5
Median household income (ACS)	131,624	93	40%	+37.3
Households (ACS)	10,657	87	20%	+17.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	500	100	35%	+34.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.1	80	25%	+20.0
Population (ACS)	29,784	89	20%	+17.7
Median household income (ACS)	131,624	93	20%	+18.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 92 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	41.2	88	50%	+54.9
10-year restaurant growth	500	100	30%	+37.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (52)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · Japanese 5 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Asian 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Mexican 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Sushi 4 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Bar 9 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Dessert 5 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anejo Cocina Nocatee Anejo Cocina Riverside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	335 Pine Lake Dr Ste D104	open
Ballyfin Investments Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		145 Hilden Rd Ste 111	open
Ben & Jerry’s Ben & Jerry's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	295 Pine Lake Dr	open
Bluewater Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		400 Nocatee Center Way	open
Bronx House Pizza Nocatee	Restaurant (service type not stated)		641 Crosswater Pkwy Ste E	open
Cantina Louie Cantina Louie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	10870 US-1 N	open
ChopHouse at Nocatee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	330 Pine Lake Drive	open
Clean Juice Clean Juice	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	250 Pine Lake Dr	open
Coastal Wine & Tapas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Spanish / tapas	300 Pine Lake Dr	open
Cross Creek Bbq Steakhouse And Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10870 Us Highway 1 N Unit 101103	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	641 Crosswater Pkwy	open
Famous Toastery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	311 3rd St N	open
Fionn MacCool's Irish Pub & Restaurant	Bar	British / Irish pub food	145 Hilden Rd	open
First Watch First Watch	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Coffee	295 Pine Lake Drive	open
Florida Coffee Peddler	Café · Coffee shop · Catering	Coffee	324 Cameron Dr	open
Fresh From Yianni's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		145 Hilden Rd	open
House of Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10580 US-1 Ste 412	open
Jana Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Sushi · Japanese		open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	152 Capital Green Drive	open
Jonis Pizza Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	145 Hilden Rd	open
Juic'e	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegan · Healthy / salads / bowls	10580 US-1	open
Koi Sushi & Thai& Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10870 US-1N，suite 101-103	open
Koi Sushi&Thai&Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Thai · Sushi · Asian	10870 US-1	open
Kotobuki Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese	145 Hilden Rd STE 106	open
M Shack Nocatee	Bar	Burgers · American	641 Crosswater Pkwy	open
Mayday Ice Cream Nocatee Town Center Mayday Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	120 Marketside Avenue	open
Nocatee Loop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		120 Marketside Ave	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	35 Capital Green Dr	open
Pieology Pizzeria, Ponte Vedra, Fl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	641 Crosswater Pkwy	open
Primo Pizza Primo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10870 US-1 #114	open
Really Good Beer Stop	Bar		295 Pine Lake Dr	open
Rocky's at Splash	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	245 Nocatee Center Way	open
Salata Salata	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	641 Crosswater Pkwy Suite B	open
Sks St Johns Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		150 Pine Lake Dr Ste A	open
SoFresh - Nocatee SoFresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	75 Irondale Rd	open
South Kitchen & Spirits	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	150 Pine Lake Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	41 Settlement Dr	open
Taco Loco Brazimex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	300 Davis Park Rd	open
Tank's Sushi Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	151 Pine Lake Dr Ste A	open
The Kookaburra Nocatee Kookaburra Beach	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	351 Town Plaza Ave Ste 102A	open
The Little Social	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	145 Hilden Rd	open
The Loop Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches · Pizza	101 Marketside Ave	open
Tijuana Flats Tijuana Flats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	41 Settlement Dr #501	open
Tikiz of Jacksonville Beach	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	616 Stone Ridge Dr	open
Timoti's Seafood Shak - Nocatee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	152 Crosswater Pkwy	open
Trader Shan's	Bar			open
Treylor Park Treylor Park - Hitch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		158 Marketside Avenue Unit 10	open
Upstairs at The Elm	Bar		104 Wild Elm Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	153 Capital Green	open
Yobe Frozen Yogurt	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	100 Marketside Ave	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	120 Marketside Avenue	open
Dick's Wings and Grill Nocatee	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Fast casual	Chicken / wings · Healthy / salads / bowls	100 Marketside Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2008	3	—	—	—	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	5	2	1	—	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	5	3	1	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	3	1	—	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	5	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	17	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	16	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	18	9	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	20	10	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	33	25	12	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	24	9	14	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32081. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32082	3.3 mi	57	2023
32256	4.7 mi	178	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.