BMIE Market 32221

Duval County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	32,833 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,155 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,390 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±671 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	27,918 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,491 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,969 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,144 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,708 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$279,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,642 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	47.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32221
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+190.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+357.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	30 (range 26–34) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32221. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.1	80	40%	+32.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.5	69	35%	+24.0
Market Momentum Score	68.5	68	25%	+17.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	32,833	91	40%	+36.2
Median household income (ACS)	82,969	66	40%	+26.3
Households (ACS)	11,390	88	20%	+17.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10.3	54	35%	+19.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.8	73	25%	+18.3
Population (ACS)	32,833	91	20%	+18.1
Median household income (ACS)	82,969	66	20%	+13.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10.3	68	50%	+34.0
10-year restaurant growth	10.3	54	30%	+16.3
20-year restaurant growth	190.9	91	20%	+18.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (51)

By cuisine

American 7 · Pizza 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · Asian 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 32 · Quick service 15 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Other 3 · Café 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Brew Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	7788 Normandy Blvd	open
A & D Buffalo	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7749 Normandy Blvd	open
A & D Buffalo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	7749 Normandy Blvd	open
Bills Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8027 Ramona Blvd W	open
Chef Matt's Bodacious Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern		open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7749 Normandy Blvd	open
Cinco De Mayo Authentic Mexican Restaurant Cinco de Mayo Atlantic Blvd	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11043 Crystal Springs Rd	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	502 Chaffee Point Blvd	open
Cupcake Paradise	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	8081 Normandy Blvd Ste 2	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	8029 Ramona Blvd W	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		11410 Normandy Boulevard	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8346 Normandy Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	7818 Normandy Blvd	open
Ellianos Coffee Ellianos Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	619 Chaffee Rd S	open
Famous Amos Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8265 Normandy Blvd	open
Fat Boyz Bar	Bar		11137 Normandy Blvd	open
FM 228 & Normandy Village Pkwy Whataburger	Quick service		7755 NORMANDY BLVD	open
G And K Food Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
German Wirtshaus	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13715 Lake Newman St	open
Golden China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7749 Normandy Blvd	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	8040 Normandy Blvd	open
Hokkaido Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	11043 Crystal Springs Rd	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	8257 Normandy Blvd. - #8	open
Jill's N the Ville.	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8033 Normandy Blvd	open
King Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese		open
King Wok Chinese Take Out	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	11043 Crystal Springs Rd	open
Larry's Giant Subs Larry's Giant Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	7895 Normandy Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		11371 Normandy Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	705 Chaffee Rd S	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8029 Normandy Blvd	open
Mr Chubbys Wings MrChubby's Wings	Casual dining · Bar	Chicken / wings	11043 Crystal Springs Rd	open
My Kitchen Jax Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7749 Normandy Blvd Ste 109	open
Perard's Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11043 Crystal Springs Rd	open
Pinoy Munchies	Food truck		8984 Normandy Blvd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7939 Normandy Blvd Duval	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches · Cajun, Creole, Southern	8007 Normandy Blvd	open
Quiznos	Other · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Sandwiches · Coffee · Dessert	8079 Ramona Blvd W	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	11043 Crystal Springs Rd	open
Roberts Post 1020	Bar		1020 Winstonian Way St	open
Sam's St Johns Seafood Of Jacksonville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	7949 Normandy Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11043 Crystal Springs Road Unit 34	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	9000 Normandy Blvd	open
Tacos Bella	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8717 Normandy Blvd	open
The Lounge - Trinity Baptist College	Bar		800 Hammond Blvd	open
Tokyo Sushi and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	7749 Normandy Blvd Ste 119	open
Triple T's Good Eats & Sweets	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	10390 Normandy Blvd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	11295 Crystal Springs Road	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	7755 NORMANDY BLVD	open
Wise Guys Pizza Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1523 Chaffee Rd S	open
Wiseguyz Burgerz Friez and Pizza Piez Food Truck	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Pizza		open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	2	8	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	2	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	14	3	11	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	11	1	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	14	3	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	20	19	6	11	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	23	22	5	15	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	24	22	4	16	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	22	21	5	16	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	20	19	5	14	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	24	22	6	16	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	23	22	7	15	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	23	23	8	15	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	30	29	9	20	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	27	27	10	17	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	32	31	12	18	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	30	30	12	17	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	31	31	12	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	29	29	12	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	26	11	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	28	27	11	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	32	29	11	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	31	13	17	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	34	32	14	17	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32221. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32222	4.4 mi	36	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.