BMIE Market 32222

Duval County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,258 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,423 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,357 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±855 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,691 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,575 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$85,649 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,320 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,795 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±108 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$312,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,488 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	36 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32222
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+89.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+157.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+2,500.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+3,500.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	42 (range 37–48) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.1 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	96 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32222. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.5	75	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.7	73	35%	+25.5
Market Momentum Score	95.8	96	25%	+24.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,258	80	40%	+31.9
Median household income (ACS)	85,649	69	40%	+27.5
Households (ACS)	7,357	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	157.1	96	35%	+33.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.7	38	25%	+9.5
Population (ACS)	18,258	80	20%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	85,649	69	20%	+13.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 96 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	89.5	94	50%	+47.1
10-year restaurant growth	157.1	96	30%	+28.7
20-year restaurant growth	2,500	100	20%	+20.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (59)

By cuisine

American 9 · Asian 9 · Chicken / wings 7 · Dessert 6 · Pizza 6 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · Japanese 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · Mexican 4 · Italian 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Sushi 3 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Thai 2 · Breakfast 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Korean 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Quick service 17 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blimpie	Quick service		9651 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9590 Applecross Rd Ste 108	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	9551 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	9630 Applecross Rd	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Sandwiches	9530 Applecross Rd..	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9671 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Crumbl	Dessert	Dessert	9526 Argyle Forest Blvd Ste B6	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9680 Argyle Forest Blvd Ste 27	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9651 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		10000 Omni Drive	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	116-0001 Oakleaf V Prk	open
El Sazón de Ara	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7588 Old Middleburg Rd S	open
Fancy Sushi Asian Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	8324 Merchants Way Ste 1	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	9660 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	9680 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	9630 Applecross Rd	open
Flame Broiler Flame Broiler	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian	9711 Applecross Rd Unit 4	open
Gators Dockside Oak Leaf Gator's Dockside Jonesville	Casual dining · Bar	American	8316 Merchants Way	open
Hot Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9680 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9530 Applecross Rd..	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	9711 Applecross Road Unit B	open
Jimmy Hula's Oakleaf	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9711 Applecross Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8227 Old Middleburg Rd S	open
La Nopalera La Nopalera	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9734 Crosshill Blvd	open
Lamai Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	9542 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9571 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Mike's Ice Cream Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9590 Applecross Rd Ste 108	open
Moes Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	9620 Applecross Road	open
My Life Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9725 Crosshill Blvd	open
Oakleaf Crumbl Cookies	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	9526 Argyle Forest Blvd, Ste B-6, Jacksonville, Florida 32222	open
Old Middleburg Rd Whataburger	Quick service		8239 OLD MIDDLEBURG RD S	open
Osaka Japanese Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9651 Crosshill Blvd	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	9580 Applecross Road #102	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	9725 Applecross Road	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9542 Argyle Forest Blvd Suite C 11	open
Peterbrooke Chocolatier Oakleaf Peterbrooke Chocolatier	Dessert	Dessert	9640 Crosshill Blvd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9501 Crosshill Blvd. Duval	open
Pizza Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9542 Argyle Forest Blvd Ste C19	open
Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8308 Merchants Way	open
Red bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Japanese · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	9570 Crosshill Blvd suite102	open
Rocky’s Chicken Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Middle Eastern · Chicken / wings	8324 Merchants Way	open
Rusty's	Bar		103rd St	open
Siciliamo Sicilian Homestyle Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9542 Argyle Forest Blvd C-19	open
Slice Oakleaf	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9725 Crosshill Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9660 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	9525 Crosshill Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9542 Argyle Forest Blvd Suite B 16	open
Sweet Treats By Ivonne	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	250 Cherry Ridge Dr	open
Tbaar cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	9542 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Ten Zushi Japanese & Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai · Japanese	9680 Argyle Forest Blvd #3	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	9610 Applecross Rd	open
Vitiano Italian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	9542 Argyle Forest Blvd C19	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9510 Applecross Rd.	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	8239 OLD MIDDLEBURG RD S	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9660-4 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Wok N Roll	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9542 Argyle Forest Blvd	open
Xtreme Subs L.l.c	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9526 Argyle Forest Blvd Ste B2-352	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9710 Applecross Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9518 Argyle Forest Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2004	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	7	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	14	5	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	15	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	17	5	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	19	4	11	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	20	5	10	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	24	6	12	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	26	7	14	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	32	32	10	16	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	36	36	11	20	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32222. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32065	3.4 mi	35	2023
32221	4.4 mi	32	2023
32244	4.7 mi	61	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.