BMIE Market 32653

Alachua County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,150 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,102 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,505 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±469 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,844 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,933 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$93,913 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±113 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$301,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32653
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	0.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+250.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+133.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+133.3% DERIVED: 1997 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32653. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.1	77	40%	+30.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	88.6	89	35%	+31.0
Market Momentum Score	94.1	94	25%	+23.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,150	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	93,913	77	40%	+30.7
Households (ACS)	6,505	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	250	99	35%	+34.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.6	93	25%	+23.3
Population (ACS)	15,150	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	93,913	77	20%	+15.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	75	94	50%	+46.9
10-year restaurant growth	250	99	30%	+29.7
20-year restaurant growth	133.3	88	20%	+17.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · Bakery 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Burkhardt Sales and Service	Bar		6125 NW 18th Dr	open
China Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6250 NW 23rd St	open
Day Dreams Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6250 Nw 23rd St Ste 6	open
Dream Day Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	6352 NW 18th Dr Ste 3	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	6200 NW 23rd St	open
Florida Man's Lunacy	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Gainesville Commissary	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6722 NW 18th Dr Unit 1	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11921 NW US Highway 441	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		5310 NW 13th St	open
La Casita Caribbean Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Caribbean	3216 NW 62nd Ave	open
Los Tacos De Mi Abuela	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5516 NW 13th St	open
Pepsi	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6335 NW 18th Dr	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5695 NW 23rd St	open
Resident Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	6352 Nw 18th Dr Ste 1	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5480 NW 43rd St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5700 NW 34th Street	open
voltaire.bakery	Bakery	Bakery	5920 NW 13th St	open
Catheryn Johnson Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4703 NW 53rd Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	5	2	2	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	4	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	4	—	—	—	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	4	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	2	1	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	4	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32653. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32605	4.8 mi	47	2023
32606	4.9 mi	50	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.