BMIE Market 33811

Polk County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	29,472 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,862 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,521 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±474 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,980 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,715 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$90,263 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,361 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±67 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$333,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33811
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+800.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+350.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.52) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	88 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33811. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.52, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.1	82	40%	+32.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	87.9	88	35%	+30.8
Market Momentum Score	87.9	88	25%	+22.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	29,472	89	40%	+35.4
Median household income (ACS)	90,263	73	40%	+29.4
Households (ACS)	10,521	87	20%	+17.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.1	97	25%	+24.3
Population (ACS)	29,472	89	20%	+17.7
Median household income (ACS)	90,263	73	20%	+14.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	30%	+26.7
20-year restaurant growth	800	99	20%	+19.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

American 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Cuban 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Almora Sweets	Dessert	Dessert	5040 Lunn Rd	open
Asr Distributing Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5024 Lunn Rd	open
Bourbon Chicken Sauce	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Chinese	3912 Holden Rd	open
Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5010 County Line Road	open
Crave Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Tea / bubble tea	5028 Lunn Rd	open
Dessert Destination Coffee & Ice Cream Lakeland Fl	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5178 County Line Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1709 Shepherd Road	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5158 County Line Rd	open
El Pizzon Cubano Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Cuban	1155 W Pipkin Rd	open
Farmer Brothers	Coffee shop	Coffee	3810 Drane Field Rd Ste 21	open
Great American Grill -hilton Garden Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Hallback's Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3900 Don Emerson Dr Ste 201	open
Hibachi Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5186 S County Line Rd	open
Hibachi King	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1155 W Pipkin Rd	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	2805 Shepard Rd.	open
K Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	3810 County Line Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		3405 E County Rd 542	open
Land O'Lakes	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4760 Gateland Dr	open
Laredo Taco Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3611 Drane Field Rd	open
Legendary Aviation Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Lugo's Craft Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2500 Drane Field Rd Ste 208	open
Mama’s Goods Farmstand	Bakery	Bakery	1430 Cherry Ln	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1805 Shepherd Rd	open
Miller's Bakery, Grill, & Spirits	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Bakery	Bakery	Hatcher Rd.	open
Sandwich Factory	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	5024 Lunn Rd	open
Sora Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	3900 Don Emerson Dr Ste 201, 2nd Floor	open
Southern Wine & Spirits	Winery / distillery / taproom		4440 Old Tampa Hwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3730 Airport Rd	open
The Egg Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	1625 Shepherd Rd	open
Uncle Bucky's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3515 Airport Rd	open
Uncle Nick's Italian Deli	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	6955 Old Hwy 37	open
Waco Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3900 Don Emerson Dr	open
Whoa's Seafood	Quick service	Seafood	1155 W Pipkin Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5140 County Line Rd	open
The Hot Spot Diner	Casual dining	American	1625 Shepherd Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	4	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	5	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	5	1	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	8	6	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33811. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33815	4.5 mi	18	2023
33566	4.9 mi	30	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.