BMIE Market 33859

Polk County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,824 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,863 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±454 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,582 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,356 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$57,760 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,048 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,288 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$215,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,846 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	45.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33859
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+433.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,500.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.53) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33859. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.53, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.4	54	40%	+21.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.3	57	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	71.1	71	25%	+17.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,824	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	57,760	26	40%	+10.4
Households (ACS)	4,863	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	35%	+23.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.5	58	25%	+14.6
Population (ACS)	11,824	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	57,760	26	20%	+5.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	30%	+19.7
20-year restaurant growth	433.3	98	20%	+19.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (59)

By cuisine

Coffee 9 · American 8 · Mexican 6 · Pizza 6 · Burgers 5 · Asian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Caribbean 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Chinese 3 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Quick service 12 · Coffee shop 7 · Café 6 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Other 2 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Akshadal Jamaican Grill	Quick service	Caribbean	451 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Azul Tequila - Lake Wales Azul Tequila Sebring	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4541 Macey Ln	open
Barnie's Coffee and Tea Co.	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	761 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Blue Note Lounge & Grill	Bar		823 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Bob Evans Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	23269 Us Highway 27	open
C-five Queen Management Co, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24171 Hwy 27	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Sandwiches	23535 US-27	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		23535 US Hwy 27	open
China Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	807 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		23250 US Hwy 27	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	Dairy Queen Store 24171 US Hwy 27	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	4541 Macey Ln	open
Dippin' Dots	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	451 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		24171 US Hwy 27	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	24195 Hwy 27	open
El Gallito #7	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	1700 FL-60	open
Fire at Lake Ashton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	4141 Ashton Club Dr	open
Freddy’s Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · American	23525 Hwy 27	open
Godfather's Pizza Express Godfather's Pizza North Platte	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	17309 US-27	open
Godfather's Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	Highway 27	open
Gyro Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	451 Eagle Ridge Mall Entrance	open
Hershey's Ice Cream HERSHEY'S	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	763 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Hooligan's BBQ Pit and Cuban food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	24200 Hwy 27	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	2850 Ridge Way	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	23535 US Hwy 27	open
Lake Wales Spot Nutrition	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	12 S Martin Rd	open
Lucky Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	23809 US-27	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	23801 US-27, Unit #7	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2500 Ridge Way	open
Munchiez	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1700 FL-60	open
Ninis Lake Alfred Cafe Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4141 Ashton Club Dr	open
NY King Pizza	Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	24169 US Highway 27	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	23710 US 27	open
Paradise Bar Restaurant and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		808 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2850 Ridge Way	open
Pholicious	Restaurant (service type not stated)		451 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Rash Jim	Juice, smoothie, tea · Specialty food shop · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	1130 Old Bartow Rd	open
Rubio’s Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	60 W Lake Wales Rd N	open
Sizzling Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	21400 US-27	open
Slim Chickens Slim Chickens	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	23260 US-27	open
Solorzano's Pizzeria Eagle Ridge Mall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	451 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Star Coffee & CBD at the Eagle Ridge Mall	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	451 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Star Coffee And Smoke Shop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	473 Eagle Ridge Drive	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	23270 Us 27 Hwy	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	# 761 Eagle Ridge Dr Eagle Ridge Mall	open
Strike's Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		950 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1450 Chalet Suzanne Rd Unit 28	open
Sushi Bento Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	24169 Hwy 27	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	24186 US Hwy 27	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	813 Eagle Ridge Dr.	open
Taqueria El Huarache	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1880 FL-60	open
Taqueria Mari - Food Stand	Food truck	Mexican	24200 US-27	open
Taqueria Montes	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2400 Hwy 27	open
The Bengal Garden of Orlando, Fl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Chinese	4693 Lighthouse Ave	open
The Fork	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		1700 FL-60	open
The Spot Jamaican Restaurant Lounge Bar & Motel	Bar	Caribbean	16905 US-27	open
Unicorn Castle Florida	Dessert		451 Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4521 Macey Lane	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	23965 US-27	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2000	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	15	4	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	16	8	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33859. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33853	2.8 mi	29	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.