BMIE Market 33956

Lee County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,405 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±733 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,649 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±323 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,776 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,260 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,534 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,532 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	64.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,829 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±346 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$318,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,757 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	16.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33956
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	31.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-36.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33956. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	51.8	52	40%	+20.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35.0	35	35%	+12.3
Market Momentum Score	10.8	11	25%	+2.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,405	54	40%	+21.7
Median household income (ACS)	69,534	46	40%	+18.5
Households (ACS)	1,649	58	20%	+11.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	35%	+5.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.6	36	25%	+9.0
Population (ACS)	3,405	54	20%	+10.9
Median household income (ACS)	69,534	46	20%	+9.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-36.4	8	50%	+3.8
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	30%	+5.1
20-year restaurant growth	-30	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · French 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 6 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blondies Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3380 Stringfellow Rd	open
China Garden Iii	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	9846 Stringfellow Rd	open
Cruisin' Tikis St James City Cruisin' Tikis	Bar		3137 Stringfellow Rd	open
Cutthroat Clams	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	5203 Curlew Dr	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10493 Stringfellow Rd	open
Fine Swine .	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10251 Stringfellow Rd	open
Froggy's	Bar		3620 Stringfellow Rd	open
Get Perked Coffee & Breakfast	Coffee shop · Food truck · Café	Coffee	10360 Stringfellow Rd	open
Girls5dad1 Charters Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10251 Stringfellow Rd	open
Horse Eyed Jake's American Sliders	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches	8793 Nome Ct	open
Isla Bites	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10493 Stringfellow Rd	open
Kickstands Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		10251 Stringfellow Rd	open
Low Key Tiki	Bar		3135 Stringfellow Rd	open
Pine Island Getaway Cafe LLC	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · French	5281 Doug Taylor Cir	open
Sunshine Cottage Dough and Jams	Bakery	Bakery	4141 Sunshine Blvd	open
The Frozen Flip Flop	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10191 Stringfellow Rd	open
The Island Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9856 Stringfellow Rd	open
The Proper Palm	Bakery	Bakery	10480 Stringfellow Rd	open
The Waterfront Grill St James City on Pine Island	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		Pine Island	open
The Waterfront Restaurant & Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2131 Oleander St	open
Woody's Waterside Island Rum & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood · Sandwiches	3051 Stringfellow Rd	open
Ragged Ass Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3421 Stringfellow Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	11	9	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	8	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	7	1	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	8	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	9	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	8	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	8	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	7	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	9	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33956. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33924	4.4 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.