BMIE Market 34212

Manatee County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,536 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,539 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,939 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±537 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,146 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,763 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$125,486 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,479 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,041 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±290 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$529,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,881 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34212
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+700.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 4–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.44) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34212. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.44, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	88.1	88	40%	+35.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94.2	94	35%	+33.0
Market Momentum Score	85.2	85	25%	+21.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,536	86	40%	+34.3
Median household income (ACS)	125,486	92	40%	+36.8
Households (ACS)	9,939	85	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.4	99	25%	+24.6
Population (ACS)	25,536	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	125,486	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	700	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (47)

By cuisine

Coffee 10 · American 7 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Korean 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 14 · Coffee shop 8 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Bakery 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Car Garage Brewing	Brewery / taproom		8405 Heritage Green Way	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	9610 SR 64 E	open
CAVA CAVA	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	7145 SR-64 E	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		7745 State Road 64 E	open
Clubhouse Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	7155 Grand Estuary Trl	open
Coffee Corner	Coffee shop	Coffee	512 Mimosa Ct	open
Connolly Cove	Bar		12836 Balsam Ter	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8307 Sr-64 E	open
Darrell Jackson	Brewery / taproom		8405 Heritage Green Way	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		8307 State Road 64	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	11015 E State Road 64	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	11002 E State Road 64	open
Ed's Tavern 64 Ed's Tavern Lakewood Ranch	Bar		1305 108th St E	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Quick service		7625 East State Road-64	open
FINN'S Smoked Fish Dip	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	7134 Quiet Creek Dr	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service		7635 Florida 64	open
Godfathers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11002 E State Road 64	open
Jacked Panda Prep To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	8475 Heritage Green Way	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		10508 SR 64	open
Lighthouse Pizza & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	8000 Stone Harbour Loop	open
LongHorn Steakhouse LongHorn Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	7185 E SR-64	open
Mahana Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	9626 FL-64	open
Matt's Diner	Casual dining	American · Burgers	131 Upper Manatee River Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11150 E State Road 64	open
Miller's Ale House Miller's Ale House	Bar · Casual dining	American	7175 FL-64	open
Miller's Ale House	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7175 SR 64 E	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	13220 FL-64	open
Nothing Bundt Cakes Nothing Bundt Cakes	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	805 Lighthouse Drive	open
Panda Express Panda Express	Quick service		7105 E SR 64	open
Panda Express	Quick service		13028 SR 64 E	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	7815 FL-64 Unit 1	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop	Coffee	7815 SR 64 E Unit 1	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11840 Sr 64 E	open
Quiznos	Quick service		11002 E State Road 64	open
Rise & Dough LLC	Bakery	Bakery	7113 Chatum Light Run	open
Seasons 52 Seasons 52	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse	7115 FL-64	open
Skillets SKILLETS	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	9722 FL-64 Unit 120	open
Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	8546 Heritage Green Way	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10715 66th St Ct E SR 64 E	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	805 Lighthouse Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10715 FL-64	open
Stoneybrook	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8000 Stone Harbour Loop	open
Sunny Seoul Korean Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian	9750 E State Road 64	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	7935 - Sr-64 E	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	White Eagle Blvd ,13232 Sr 64 East	open
Wendy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	13744 Sr-64 E	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	13150 E SR-64	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2002	3	1	—	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	2	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	2	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34212. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34211	3.1 mi	34	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.