BMIE Market 34216

Manatee County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	874 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±251 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	473 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±156 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,503 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,559 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,561 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,040 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	64.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$1,227,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±397,607 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	0.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34216
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	59.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+155.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+130.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+360.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+283.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 20–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.1 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	97 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34216. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.3	52	40%	+20.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.1	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	97.1	97	25%	+24.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	874	30	40%	+11.9
Median household income (ACS)	103,561	83	40%	+33.3
Households (ACS)	473	36	20%	+7.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	130	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	263.2	1	25%	+0.3
Population (ACS)	874	30	20%	+6.0
Median household income (ACS)	103,561	83	20%	+16.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 97 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	155.6	98	50%	+49.1
10-year restaurant growth	130	95	30%	+28.5
20-year restaurant growth	360	98	20%	+19.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · American 5 · Seafood 5 · Breakfast 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anna Maria Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	210C Pine Ave	open
Anna Maria Island Creamery and Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	9801 Gulf Dr	open
Bortell's Lounge	Bar		10002 Gulf Dr	open
Brewed Monday Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	415 Pine Ave	open
Chocolate Emporium	Dessert	Dessert	216C Pine Ave	open
CITY PIER GRILL AND BAIT SHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	100 N BAY Blvd	open
Cool Beans A.M.I.	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	101 S Bay Blvd	open
DBTB juice bar & bakery	Café · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Bakery · Juice / smoothies	407 Magnolia Ave	open
Dips Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	503 Pine Ave	open
Ginny's & Jane E's Bakery Cafe	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Breakfast · Bakery	9807 Gulf Dr	open
gRub Tropical BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	415 Pine Ave	open
Harry's Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	9903 Gulf Dr	open
Hometown Desserts	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	507 Pine Ave	open
Island Ocean Star	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	902 S Bay Blvd	open
Mademoiselle Paris Mademoiselle Paris - French Restaurant And Bakery	Bakery	French · European · Bakery	9906 Gulf Dr	open
North Shore Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	304 Pine Ave	open
Pizza Social	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	308 Pine Ave	open
Poppo's Taqueria Taqueria Taxco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	212C Pine Ave	open
Rock N Eggroll	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	425 Pine Ave	open
Rod and Reel Pier	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	875 N Shore Dr	open
Rudy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	9906 Gulf Dr	open
Sandbar Seafood + Spirits	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	100 Spring Ave	open
Sign Of The Mermaid	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	9707 Gulf Ave	open
Slim's Place	Bar · Casual dining		9701 Gulf Dr	open
Sushi Ramen Anna Maria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9801 Gulf Dr #7	open
Sweet. on Main	Dessert	Dessert	501 Pine Ave	open
The City Pier Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	100 S Bay Blvd	open
The Dive Bar	Bar			open
The Happy Manatee	Café	Coffee	9908 Gulf Dr	open
The Porch Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	9707 Gulf Dr	open
The Waffle Press	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	425 Pine Ave.	open
The Waterfront Restaurant The Waterfront Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	111 S Bay Blvd	open
Two Scoops	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	101 S Bay Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	7	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	5	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	5	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	6	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	8	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	9	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	8	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	7	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	8	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	12	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	8	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	8	6	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	23	9	10	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34216. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34217	3.5 mi	32	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.