BMIE Market 34242

Sarasota County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±616 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,014 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±351 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,865 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,854 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$115,967 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	65.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,932 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,074 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,046,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±94,464 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	35 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34242
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	32.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+45.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+45.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	44 (range 38–49) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.51) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34242. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.51, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.4	76	40%	+30.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.8	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	40.4	40	25%	+10.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,529	67	40%	+26.6
Median household income (ACS)	115,967	89	40%	+35.6
Households (ACS)	4,014	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	46.5	11	25%	+2.7
Population (ACS)	7,529	67	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	115,967	89	20%	+17.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.9	20	50%	+10.2
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	45.8	61	20%	+12.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (96)

By cuisine

Seafood 16 · American 14 · Coffee 13 · Dessert 9 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 9 · Pizza 8 · Sandwiches 7 · Bakery 5 · Breakfast 3 · Italian 3 · Asian 2 · European 2 · French 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 54 · Bar 21 · Casual dining 12 · Dessert 12 · Café 9 · Coffee shop 7 · Bakery 6 · Quick service 6 · Specialty food shop 3 · Other 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3.14 Pi Craft Beer & Spirits	Casual dining · Bar		5263 Ocean Blvd	open
5150 Ocean Blvd, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5148 Ocean Blvd	open
A Taste of Germany	Bakery	Bakery	6575 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Aaron's Fish Camp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	149 Avenida Messina	open
Amy Star Izakaya Siesta Key Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		230 Avenida Madera	open
Anna's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	6535 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Another Broken Egg Cafe Another Broken Egg Cafe	Café	Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern · Breakfast	140 Avenida Messina	open
Beach Bites Siesta Key	Other	Sandwiches	217 Avenida Madera	open
Bean Coffeehouse	Café	Coffee	5138 Ocean Blvd	open
Big Water Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	6639 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Big Water Fish Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	6641 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Big Water Fish Market North Siesta Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	217 Avenida Madera	open
Bonjour French Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	5214 Ocean Blvd	open
Cafe Gabbiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	5104 Ocean Blvd	open
Captain Curt's Crab and Oyster Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	1200 Old Stickney Point Rd	open
Casa Masa Siesta Key	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5214 Ocean Blvd	open
Charlutz	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		6519 Midnight Pass Rd	open
City Pizza, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6645 Midnight Pass Rd Unit 2	open
Clayton's Siesta Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1256 Old Stickney Point Rd	open
Coffee & Craft Beer Garden	Bar · Coffee shop	Coffee	1200 Old Stickney Point Rd	open
Cozy Coffee Cafe Siesta Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		153 Avenida Messina	open
Daiquiri Deck Daiquiri Deck	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5250 Ocean Blvd	open
Daiquiri Deck Daiquiri Deck	Bar		1250 Stickney Point Rd	open
Daquri Deck Raw Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American		open
eat here siesta key	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	240 Avenida Madera	open
Flavio's Brick Oven Pizza & Bar Siesta Key	Bar	Italian · Pizza	5239 Ocean Blvd	open
Gilligan's Island Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		5253 Ocean Blvd	open
Grim Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5104 Ocean Blvd	open
Il Panificio Siesta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	215 Avenida Madera	open
Island House Tap and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5110 Ocean Blvd	open
Island Ice Cream & More	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1220 Old Stickney Point Rd	open
Jack's At Castaway Cove	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Jake's Ice Cream Jake's Ice Creams & Sorbets	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	6575 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Jo-To Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	5218 Ocean Blvd	open
Kilwins Ice Cream - Chocolate - Fudge Kilwins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5140 Ocean Blvd	open
Leach House/bar&grill SOUTH	Casual dining · Bar			open
Lelu Coffee Lounge	Café	Coffee	5251 Ocean Blvd	open
Lobster Pot Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	5157 Ocean Blvd	open
Local Coffee + Tea	Coffee shop	Coffee	5138 Ocean Blvd	open
Made In Rome Organic Gelato	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5204 Ocean Blvd	open
Meaney's Mini Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	201 Canal Rd	open
Miguel's Restaurant Miguel's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	6631 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Mojo Risin' Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	5251 Ocean Blvd	open
Munchies on the Key	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6639 Midnight Pass Rd	open
MVP	Bar · Casual dining		5200 Ocean Blvd	open
Nu-life Holdings Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5239 Ocean Blvd	open
Nutritious You Plant Based Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery · Sandwiches	6583 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Olaf's Siesta Village	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	5208 Ocean Blvd	open
Ophelia's on the Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	9105 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Orange Octopus	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1220 Old Stickney Point Rd	open
Parlor Doughnuts Parlor Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	5055 Ocean Blvd	open
Pizza N' Brew Siesta Key	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6645 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Pizza Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	5263 Ocean Blvd	open
Project Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	5055 Ocean Blvd	open
Ripfire Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5218 Ocean Blvd	open
Señor Siesta Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	5110 Ocean Blvd	open
Siesta Beach Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	948 Beach Rd	open
Siesta Dunes Deck and Grill Area	Casual dining · Bar			open
Siesta Early Bird Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6621 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Siesta Key Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6547 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Siesta Key Summer House Steak & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood	149 Avenida Messina	open
Siesta Key Sweet Shop	Dessert	Dessert	5055 Ocean Blvd	open
Siesta Key Wine Bar	Bar		5138 Ocean Blvd Ste c	open
Siesta Poké	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	5206 Ocean Blvd	open
Siesta Reservations	Restaurant (service type not stated)		948 Beach Rd	open
SKOB Weekly Fun Run	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	5238 Ocean Blvd	open
Solorzano Bros.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	215 Avenida Madera	open
Spearfish Grille	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	1265 Old Stickney Point Rd	open
Star Thai and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai · Japanese	230 Avenida Madera	open
Sub Zero Nitrogen Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	219 Avenida Madera	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	5239 Ocean Blvd Ste B	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	1250 Stickney Point Rd	open
Summerhouse Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	6101 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Sun Garden Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	210 Avenida Madera	open
The Big Tiki Lounge	Bar		5311 Ocean Blvd	open
The Blase Cafe and Martini Bar	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	5263 Ocean Blvd	open
The Cottage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	153 Avenida Messina	open
The DUO Döner & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Middle Eastern	5049 Ocean Blvd	open
The Fudge Factory	Dessert	Dessert	5263 Ocean Blvd	open
The Hub Baja Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5148 Ocean Blvd	open
The Local Bean	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5138 Ocean Blvd	open
The Old Salty Dog Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5023 Ocean Blvd	open
The Seafood Joint	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	217 Avenida Madera	open
The Siesta Fish Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	221 Garden Ln	open
The Stüüp at Coquille	Bar		1157 Coquille St	open
Toasted mango cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	6621 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Turtle Beach Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8865 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Turtle's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Turtles Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	8875 Midnight Pass Rd	open
Verthia Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5214 Ocean Blvd	open
Village Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	5133 Ocean Blvd	open
Village Eats	Bar · Bakery	Bakery	205 Canal Rd	open
Whits Siesta Key	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5147 Ocean Blvd	open
Boardwalk Eats And Sweets	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	217 Avenida Madera	closed
Local Chill	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5140 Ocean Blvd	closed
Smg Companies Holding Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5254 Ocean Blvd # A	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	24	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	26	24	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	29	27	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	39	36	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	38	35	26	8	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	33	30	24	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	28	25	21	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	26	24	19	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	25	22	16	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	28	24	18	6	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	32	27	18	5	3	4	NAICS2002
2005	35	28	18	5	4	6	NAICS2002
2006	31	25	15	5	4	6	NAICS2002
2007	31	27	18	5	3	3	NAICS2002
2008	36	31	23	4	3	4	NAICS2007
2009	35	30	21	4	3	3	NAICS2007
2010	34	29	21	4	3	3	NAICS2007
2011	37	32	23	4	4	3	NAICS2007
2012	36	32	23	6	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	33	30	23	4	2	3	NAICS2012
2014	34	31	23	4	3	3	NAICS2012
2015	38	35	27	5	2	3	NAICS2012
2016	36	32	23	4	4	3	NAICS2012
2017	39	34	24	5	4	4	NAICS2017
2018	44	38	26	5	6	5	NAICS2017
2019	42	39	27	5	6	3	NAICS2017
2020	43	39	27	4	7	4	NAICS2017
2021	46	42	31	—	7	4	NAICS2017
2022	40	37	26	—	7	3	NAICS2022
2023	39	35	26	—	6	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34242. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34231	1.5 mi	117	2023
34239	3.7 mi	59	2023
34233	4.2 mi	49	2023
34238	4.6 mi	27	2023
34236	4.7 mi	147	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.