BMIE Market 34238
Sarasota County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 23,821 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,432 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 12,109 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±689 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 17,500 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 11,579 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $97,926 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 63.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,850 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±100 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $574,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,487 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 13.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34238 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 14.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +3.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +35.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +125.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 24 (range 18–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34238. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 83.5 | 83 | 40% | +33.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 66.7 | 67 | 35% | +23.3 |
| Market Momentum Score | 46.7 | 47 | 25% | +11.7 |
Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 23,821 | 84 | 40% | +33.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 97,926 | 80 | 40% | +31.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 12,109 | 89 | 20% | +17.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 3.9 | 49 | 35% | +17.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 11.3 | 67 | 25% | +16.8 |
| Population (ACS) | 23,821 | 84 | 20% | +16.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 97,926 | 80 | 20% | +15.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 3.9 | 49 | 30% | +14.7 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 35 | 56 | 20% | +11.2 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (64)
By cuisine
American 11 · Coffee 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Japanese 5 · Chicken / wings 4 · Pizza 4 · Seafood 4 · Dessert 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sushi 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Mexican 2 · Steakhouse 2 · BBQ 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 41 · Quick service 11 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Bakery 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Natives 3Natives | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 8226 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| 83 Tavern | Casual dining · Bar | American | 8383 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Auntie Anne's | Dessert · Quick service | Dessert | 8201 S Tamiami Trl Unit 9152 | open |
| Barefoot Bar and Grill | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Beckham's Sarasota Restaurant On The Trail | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 8579 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Brooklyn Bagels & Deli | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · American · Sandwiches | 6970 S Beneva Rd, | open |
| Candy Barrel | Dessert | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open | |
| Carvel of Sarasota Carvel | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8382 S Tamiami Trl | open | |
| Charley's Grilled Subs | Quick service | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open | |
| Charleys Philly Steaks | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 8201 S Tamiami Trl FC7 | open |
| Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 8420 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Chick-fil-a | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Coyne's Pier 28 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 8539 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 8445 Tamiami Tr | open |
| Edy's Grand Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | Westfield Sarasota Square Mall | open |
| Fiamma Cofee Connections | Coffee shop | Coffee | 5850 Deacon Rd | open |
| First Watch - South Sarasota First Watch | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Breakfast · American | 8383 S. Tamiami Trail | open |
| Fuji Sushi Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse | 8401 Honore Ave | open |
| Gator Tails Restaurant & Sports Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8383 S Tamiami Trl | open | |
| Gold China Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 8443 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Great Steak | Other | Sandwiches | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Gulf Coast Crab & Seafood | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 6986 Beneva Rd | open |
| Hibachi-San Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese | 8201 S Tamiami Trl Unit FC09 | open |
| Il Mercatino Italian Pantry | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 8620 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Jalisco Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 8389 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 8382 S Tamiami Trail | open |
| Keva Juice | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| KFC | Quick service | 5825 Derek Ave | open | |
| Linksters Tap Room | Bar | British / Irish pub food | 8764 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Mav Adventures Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6970 Beneva Rd Unit 8 | open | |
| Mpmk Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8201 S Tamiami Trl Unit Fc7 | open | |
| Ocean Bottom | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Panda Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Pita Pit | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open | |
| Pizzeria Della Nonna | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8383 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Prime Serious Steak Prime | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Steakhouse | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Rally's | Quick service | 8394 Tamiami Trl | open | |
| Reyna's Taqueria South | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | Located in Sarasota Square Mall (Food Court, 8201 S Tamiami Trl FC7 | open |
| Roessler's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2033 Vamo Way | open |
| Ruby Tuesday | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Saga Japanese Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese | 8383 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Sarasota Crab Lab | Specialty food shop | Seafood | 6986 Beneva Rd | open |
| Sbarro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Shark Bait Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 8301 Potter Park Dr | open |
| Skillets - Sarasota - Oaks Plaza Skillets Restaurants | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 8635 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Slim Chickens Slim Chickens | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Sandwiches · American | 4096 Jenkins Pl | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 8401 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 5825 Derek Ave | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 8201 S Tamiami Trl Sarasota Square Ma Ll | open |
| SUBWAY | Other | Sandwiches | open | |
| The Italian Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Italian | 8620 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| The Skinny Dip Frozen Yogurt Bar | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Dessert | 8415 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| The wee pub | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | British / Irish pub food · American | 8383 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 8605 Tamiami Trail | open |
| Villa Italian Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8201 S Tamiami Trl Unit FC08 | open |
| Villagewalk Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8109 Camminare Dr Ste 400 | open | |
| Vineyards of Silver Oak, Sarasota, Florida | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Vitality Bowls | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Healthy / salads / bowls | 8226 South Tamiami Trail | open |
| Wilfred's Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · BBQ | 8579 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 8409 S Tamiami Trl | open |
| ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 8405 Honore Ave Unit 1 | open |
| Perry's Bbq & Asian Grill Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 8201 S Tamiami Trl | closed |
| Pizzeria Della Nonna | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8383 S Tamiami Trl Unit 107 | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 12 | 12 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 10 | 10 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 11 | 11 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 18 | 18 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 24 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 18 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 16 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 20 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 20 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 26 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 26 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 28 | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 29 | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 28 | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 29 | 27 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 30 | 30 | 12 | 14 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 26 | 26 | 10 | 12 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 27 | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 25 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 24 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 29 | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 25 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 23 | 19 | 9 | 9 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 27 | 24 | 12 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 27 | 24 | 8 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 32 | 27 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2022 |