BMIE Market 34291

Sarasota County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,630 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±936 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,251 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±380 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,125 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,054 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$93,425 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,468 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,131 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±233 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$354,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,394 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34291
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 2007 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 5 years ahead	Not enough history to project
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34291. Not enough history for a projection.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.6	72	40%	+38.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.3	80	35%	+37.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,630	69	40%	+27.4
Median household income (ACS)	93,425	76	40%	+30.5
Households (ACS)	3,251	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 80 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.6	93	25%	+35.8
Population (ACS)	8,630	69	20%	+21.1
Median household income (ACS)	93,425	76	20%	+23.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (5)

By cuisine

Bakery 2 · Pizza 1

By type

Bakery 2 · Bar 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Chammy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7799 Meroni Blvd	open
Natasbread	Bakery	Bakery	5080 Wagon Wheel Dr	open
Righteous Juice Co.	Food truck		6400 W Price Blvd	open
Southbound on I 75	Bar			open
Sugar Tooth Sweets	Dessert · Bakery	Bakery	7098 Muncey Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2007	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2010	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2022	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34291. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34287	4.6 mi	47	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.