BMIE Market 34604

Hernando County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,642 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,026 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±349 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,003 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,135 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,833 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,976 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,365 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±308 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$305,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	36.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34604
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 1–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.50) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34604. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.50, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.8	72	40%	+28.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.2	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	21.5	21	25%	+5.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,642	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	84,833	68	40%	+27.1
Households (ACS)	4,600	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	35%	+3.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.7	96	25%	+24.0
Population (ACS)	13,642	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	84,833	68	20%	+13.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-37.5	7	50%	+3.7
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	30%	+3.1
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Bakery 5 · American 4 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Sandwiches 3 · African 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Cuban 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 5 · Quick service 5 · Food truck 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Café 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ame International	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2324 Circuit Way	open
Bagels & Beyond	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	16272 Spring Hill Dr	open
Blimpie Subs & Sandwiches	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	75 Broad St	open
Cafe Masaryktown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cuban	398 Broad St	open
Damicos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3206 Aerial Way	open
Drew's American Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	3206 Aerial Way	open
Encanto Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3431 Saturn Rd	open
Flava Shack Italian Ice	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3163 Aerial Way	open
Gear Head Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		17109 Old Ayers Rd	open
Greek Grill Bros	Food truck	Greek · Mediterranean	410 Broad St	open
Hernando Oaks Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	Delacroix Dr	open
Itchy Belly Beer Garden	Brewery / taproom		410 Broad St	open
Kristine's SWEET Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	15266 Alba Dr	open
Main Street Bakery	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Dessert	Bakery · Sandwiches · Dessert	17375 Spring Hill Dr	open
Martin's Tasty Treats	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	17375 Spring Hill Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	15050 Spring Hill Dr	open
Noah's Hot Dog Ark	Quick service · Food truck	Hot dogs	15402 Aviation Loop Dr	open
Peachy Pie's Fresh Market & Cafe'	Café	Coffee · Italian · Breakfast	17002 Ayers Rd	open
Portland Bey Jerk	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	17375 Spring Hill Dr	open
Ron's Roadside Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3220 Broad St	open
Ruthie's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	440 Broad St	open
Scoops Ice Cream & Candyland	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	17375 Spring Hill Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	3101 Aerial Way	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3101 Aerial Way	open
Stumpy's Pizza Mill	Food truck		17375 Spring Hill Dr	open
The Ice Cream Barr at The Production House The Ice Cream Barr at Good Time	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	410 Broad St	open
Upicktopia	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		19125 Phillips Rd #6952	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	4	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	6	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	6	4	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	5	1	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	7	5	—	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	5	3	—	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34604. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34609	4.6 mi	57	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.