BMIE Market 37877

Jefferson County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,185 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±914 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,784 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,464 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,614 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$77,624 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,854 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,020 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$234,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,606 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 37877
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 1–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2010–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37877. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2010–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.4	65	40%	+26.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78.6	79	35%	+27.5
Market Momentum Score	87.1	87	25%	+21.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,185	70	40%	+27.8
Median household income (ACS)	77,624	59	40%	+23.5
Households (ACS)	3,784	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.3	97	25%	+24.2
Population (ACS)	9,185	70	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	77,624	59	20%	+11.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	200	99	50%	+49.5
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · BBQ 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bar 1 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2 Lakes Cheesecakes	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	Bakery	1250 E Old A J Hwy	open
Flowers Discount Bakery Store Flowers' discount Bakery Store	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	6716 W Andrew Johnson Hwy	open
Gelato Brothers Full Service Catering	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1149 Highway 11 E Ste A1	open
Granny Jean's Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6900 W Andrew Johnson Hwy	open
Home Creations Boutique	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5459 Dearing Rd	open
Kurbside Grillin'	Food truck · Catering	BBQ	6666 W Andrew Johnson Hwy	open
Michael's Pizza Cottage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7248 W Andrew Johnson Hwy	open
Michael's Pizza Cottage-West	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6008 W Andrew Johnson Hwy	open
Phat Dadez BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2250 Lakeshore Rd	open
Sunshine Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6057 W Andrew Johnson Hwy Ste 8	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	6000 W Andrew Johnson Hwy	open
Talbott Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	877 Talbott-Kansas Rd	open
The Chocolate Ladies	Dessert	Dessert	107 Lakeshore Rd	open
The Red Velvet	Bar · Dessert	Dessert	7794 Greenbriar Rd	open
The Talbott Farm Store	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1250 E Old Andrew Johnson Hwy	open
tollivers country store	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	877 Talbott Kansas Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 37877. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
37760	4.7 mi	28	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.