BMIE Market 40010

Oldham County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	678 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	223 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	587 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	182 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$196,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86,975 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$591,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 40010
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-66.7% DERIVED: 2006 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	0 (range 0–2) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2003–2016 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.15) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40010. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2003–2016, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.15, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.5	55	40%	+21.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38.7	39	35%	+13.6
Market Momentum Score	26.5	27	25%	+6.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	678	26	40%	+10.3
Median household income (ACS)	196,125	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	223	24	20%	+4.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-66.7	1	35%	+0.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.8	54	25%	+13.4
Population (ACS)	678	26	20%	+5.2
Median household income (ACS)	196,125	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 27 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+26.1
10-year restaurant growth	-66.7	1	30%	+0.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 2 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Delizie Italiane	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Coffee	4300 Lagrange Rd	open
Elevate Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4411 KY-146	open
Fitz Freeze Frozen Treats	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4411 Kentucky 146 6520. W. Hwy 146, Crestwood	open
Frascelli's NY Deli & Pizzeria	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	4310 W Ky-146	open
Inspirational Grounds Coffee Shop	Coffee shop	Coffee	4724 Old Lagrange Rd	open
Mi Tierra	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4773 Fox Run Rd	open
Rooted with Syd	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	4411 Lagrange Rd	open
Sisters, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4765 Fox Run Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4734 W Highway 146	open
Tamarack Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4411 KY-146	open
Taqueria GR	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4410 KY-146	open
The 19th hole at Oldham county country club	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40010. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40014	2.6 mi	23	2023
40026	4.6 mi	2	2016
40056	4.7 mi	4	2020

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.