BMIE Market 40014

Oldham County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	23,101 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,018 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,168 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±368 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,986 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,368 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,189 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,439 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,253 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±120 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$393,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,377 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	52.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40014
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+27.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+9.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+109.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+228.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 13–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40014. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.2	86	40%	+34.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.8	72	35%	+25.1
Market Momentum Score	74.2	74	25%	+18.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	23,101	84	40%	+33.5
Median household income (ACS)	121,189	91	40%	+36.3
Households (ACS)	8,168	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	9.5	54	35%	+18.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.0	72	25%	+18.1
Population (ACS)	23,101	84	20%	+16.8
Median household income (ACS)	121,189	91	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	27.8	82	50%	+41.1
10-year restaurant growth	9.5	54	30%	+16.1
20-year restaurant growth	109.1	85	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

Pizza 8 · Mexican 6 · Latin American (other) 5 · American 4 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Japanese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 10 · Bar 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3rd Turn Oldham Gardens	Brewery / taproom · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	6300 Old Lagrange Rd	open
A Taste of Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	6549 W State Hwy 22	open
Alchemy food truck	Food truck	Latin American (other)		open
Backside Grill at Oldham Gardens	Brewery / taproom		6302 Old Lagrange Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	6402 Claymont Crossing	open
China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6420 KY-146	open
Cravings Byanca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6004 Pleasant Colony Ct	open
Crestwood Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6461 KY-146	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	6603 W Highway 22	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	6332 KY-146	open
El Nopal Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6825 Central Ave	open
Fast Break Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6825 Central Ave	open
Gustavo's Mexican Grill Gustavo's Mexican Grill, Norton Commons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	6402 Westwind Way	open
Highspire Whiskey	Winery / distillery / taproom		6230 Old Lagrange Rd	open
Hive And Barrel Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom		6302 Old Lagrange Rd	open
Hometown Pizza Hometown Pizza. Minford Ohio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6900 Potts Ln	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Breakfast	8901 W State Hwy 22	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2615 E State Hwy 22	open
Jefferson's	Winery / distillery / taproom		6230 Old Lagrange Rd	open
La Rosita Sol Crestwood Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6334 W Highway 146 Unit A	open
Latin Cookery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6004 Pleasant Colony Ct	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6001 Pleasant Colony Ct SUITE 101	open
McAlister's Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5600 Old Lagrange Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6410 W Hwy 146	open
Mikato Steak and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	6001 Pleasant Colony Ct Ste 8	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6535 W Highway 22	open
Papi's Mex Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6001 Pleasant Colony Ct	open
PopsRoadside	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		7102 Williamsgate Blvd	open
Red Pepper Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6401 Claymont Xing	open
Red Top Stop Pizza & Deli	Other	Sandwiches	2700 W Highway 22	open
Rikishi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	6110 Crestwood Station	open
Romas Crestwood Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6825 Central Ave	open
Slice N Dice Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6300 Old Lagrange Rd	open
SONIC Drive In	Quick service		6430 Highway 146	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7203 Hwy 329	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6002 Pleasant Colony Ct Ste 2	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	6521 Veterans Memorial Pkwy	open
Taquería Crestwood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6334 KY-146 Ste 1-A	open
Triune Coffee and Tea	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	6315 W Highway 146	open
Twice the ICE - Crestwood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6423 Railroad Ave	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	6501 Veterans Memorial Pkwy	open
Wilder's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	6408 KY-146	open
Golden City	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6100 Crestwood Sta	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	14	6	5	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	13	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	15	1	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	17	3	10	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	2	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	19	19	6	10	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	19	19	6	10	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	21	21	7	11	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	21	21	7	11	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	23	23	7	12	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	21	19	6	9	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	18	5	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	18	7	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	18	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	18	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	19	6	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	23	6	14	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40014. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40010	2.6 mi	1	2016
40056	3.7 mi	4	2020

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.