BMIE Market 40228

Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,085 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,389 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,279 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±462 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,743 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,492 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,404 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,611 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,371 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±74 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$241,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,086 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40228
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.24) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	51 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40228. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.24, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.4	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.4	70	35%	+24.6
Market Momentum Score	51.4	51	25%	+12.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,085	80	40%	+31.9
Median household income (ACS)	79,404	61	40%	+24.5
Households (ACS)	7,279	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	35%	+23.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	18,085	80	20%	+15.9
Median household income (ACS)	79,404	61	20%	+12.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	30%	+19.7
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (53)

By cuisine

Pizza 8 · Coffee 6 · Mexican 5 · American 4 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Sandwiches 2 · African 1 · Chinese 1 · Cuban 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Bar 11 · Quick service 11 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5 de Mayo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5520 Fern Valley Rd Ste 115	open
Alpha Pool League New View Bar Louisville	Bar		7601 Outer Loop	open
American Pizza Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6712 Shepherdsville Rd	open
Borromeo's Pizza and Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8607 Smyrna Pkwy	open
Bungalow Joe's Family Grill and Pub	Casual dining · Bar	American	7813 Beulah Church Rd	open
China Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7813 Beulah Church Rd	open
Delicious Tropical	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6712 Shepherdsville Rd	open
Derby City Pizza Company “Highview” Derby City Pizza Company "PRP"	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7207 Fegenbush Ln	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	7924 Fegenbush Lane	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	6460 Outer Loop	open
Eden and Kissi	Café	African · Coffee	6006 Shepherdsville Rd	open
Extraordin-air	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5510 Fern Valley Rd	open
Ezzys Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining · Bar		6707 Shareith Dr	open
Forks Up The Grub Truck	Food truck		7924 Fegenbush Ln	open
GG’s Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10119 Hornbeam Blvd	open
Golden Gate Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	8605 Smyrna Pkwy	open
Gypsy's Sports Grille	Bar		7207 Fegenbush Ln	open
Havana Bakery Cafe & Store Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5510 Fern Valley Rd	open
Healthy Chance Nutrition	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7813 Beulah Church Rd Unit 103	open
Highbrew Coffee Co	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7407 Fegenbush Ln A	open
HighFood	Casual dining	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern · Burgers	7407 Fegenbush Ln	open
Highview Ice Cream and Coffee	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	7525 Outer Loop	open
Hitching Post Inn	Bar · Casual dining		7314 Fegenbush Ln	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6403 E MANSLICK	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6804 SHEPHERDSVILLE RD	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6101 Fegenbush Lane	open
La Sierra Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6501 Shepherdsville Rd #107	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	7529 Outer Loop	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		6703 Rocky Lane	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6214 Old Shepherdsville Rd	open
New View Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	7601 Outer Loop	open
No more rj india this place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	4306 Fegenbush Ln	open
O'Connell's Irish Pub	Bar		7207 Fegenbush Ln	open
Ole Hickory Pit Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6106 Shepherdsville Rd	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7509 Outer Loop	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6800 Outer Loop Jefferson	open
Pizza Pro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7519 Outer Loop	open
Puerto Vallarta Mexican Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7813 Beulah Church Rd #109	open
Roosters	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6712 Outer Loop	open
Slab Daddy's BBQ	Catering	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	7403 Fegenbush Ln	open
Small Arms	Bar		5800 Fern Valley Rd Ste 128	open
Sonic Drive-In	Quick service		6460 Outer Loop	open
Special When Lit Bar Arcade	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6204 Moorhaven Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	6745 Beulah Church Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7531 Outerloop Unit 5	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6501 Shepherdsville Road suite #105	open
Sweet Havana	Bakery · Café	Cuban · Coffee · Bakery	5510 Fern Valley Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		6701 Beulah Church Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	6212 Shephersdville Road	open
The Thirsty Hound LLC	Bar		7207 Fegenbush Ln	open
Brickyard Sports Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		4300 Fegenbush Ln	closed
Pastry Plus	Bakery	Bakery	7407 Fegenbush Ln Ste B	closed
Vonsubs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6006 Shepherdsville Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	15	11	2	9	—	4	NAICS1997
1999	16	11	2	9	—	5	NAICS1997
2000	13	10	2	8	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	13	10	2	8	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	1	9	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	14	12	2	10	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	3	11	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	3	11	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	2	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	9	2	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	11	9	2	7	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	2	7	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	3	8	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	16	14	5	9	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	15	13	4	9	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	13	4	8	—	3	NAICS2012
2014	18	15	5	9	—	3	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	5	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	16	14	5	7	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	19	16	5	8	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	19	16	4	9	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	20	15	4	8	—	5	NAICS2017
2020	19	15	4	9	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	20	15	5	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	19	14	5	7	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	21	16	6	8	—	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40228. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40219	3.1 mi	76	2023
40291	3.2 mi	51	2023
40218	3.6 mi	45	2023
40229	3.8 mi	32	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.