BMIE Market 40229

Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	41,299 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,839 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	15,630 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±900 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	36,852 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	14,534 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,936 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,755 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,301 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$215,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,798 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40229
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+128.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	30 (range 27–34) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.30) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40229. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.30, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.4	81	40%	+32.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.8	58	35%	+20.2
Market Momentum Score	26.0	26	25%	+6.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	41,299	94	40%	+37.8
Median household income (ACS)	79,936	62	40%	+24.8
Households (ACS)	15,630	94	20%	+18.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.8	81	25%	+20.3
Population (ACS)	41,299	94	20%	+18.9
Median household income (ACS)	79,936	62	20%	+12.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.6	20	50%	+9.9
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (70)

By cuisine

American 13 · Mexican 9 · Sandwiches 8 · Bakery 6 · Chicken / wings 5 · Coffee 5 · Pizza 5 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Dessert 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Chinese 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Seafood 2 · Sushi 2 · Breakfast 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 45 · Quick service 25 · Bakery 7 · Bar 5 · Dessert 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Casual dining 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Brew Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	5000 Maple Spring Dr	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11488 Preston Hwy	open
Beef 'O' Brady's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Beef 'O' Brady's Beef 'O' Brady's Fern Creek	Bar · Casual dining	American	11324 Preston Hwy	open
Bob Evans Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11800 Standiford Plaza Dr	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11300 Preston Hwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	9512 Preston Hwy	open
Champions Gourmet Popcorn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Bakery	1679 Old Preston Hwy N	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	11300 Preston Hwy	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	11300 Preston Hwy	open
Chick-fil-A	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		10501 Preston Highway	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican · Sandwiches	11600 Antonia Way	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10415 Preston Highway	open
Corner Tavern	Bar		5207 Mt Washington Rd	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	11801 Interchange Drive	open
Dc2j Management Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11210 Preston Hwy	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	6434 N Preston Hwy 4	open
Double Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9204 Blue Lick Rd	open
Ek's Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	6470 Old Preston Hwy N	open
El Acapulco Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5404 Antle Dr	open
El Nopal El Nopal Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11336 Preston Hwy	open
El Tapatío Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	11489 Preston Hwy	open
Emilio's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9218 Blue Lick Rd	open
Fazoli's Fazoli's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	11806 Standiford Plaza Dr	open
Hakimianpour Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11300 Preston Hwy	open
Hillview Fazoli's	Quick service		11806 Standiford Plaza Drive	open
Hillview Beef O'Brady's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11324 Preston Hwy	open
Hillview Family Diner & Ice Cream	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1679 Old Preston Hwy N	open
Hillview Lounge	Bar		1891 Old Preston Hwy N	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11600 Antonia Way	open
Jen's Cake	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6912 Walnut Farm Dr	open
Jimmy John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5023 Mud Ln Ste. 160	open
Jumar, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5016 Mud Ln Ste 100a	open
Juno Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5406 Antle Dr #108	open
KFC KFC	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1835 Old Preston Highway	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10231 Blue Lick Rd	open
La Unica Bakery & Pizzeria	Bakery	Bakery · Pizza	9210 Blue Lick Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	254 Market Place Dr	open
Los Cabos Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11470 Preston Hwy	open
Louisville Seafood Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Market Place Dr & Tanyard Springs Blvd Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	110 Market Place Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1911 Old Preston Hwy N	open
Moby Dick Restaurants Moby dick seafood Middletown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	11210 Preston Hwy	open
Najim Malik Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9220 Blue Lick Rd	open
Number 1 Chinese Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5011 Mud Ln	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5000 Mud Ln	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5016 Mud Lane, Suite 100B	open
Penn Station East Coast Subs Penn Station East Coast Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	5009 Mud Ln	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service		9700 Preston Crossing Boulevard	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11810 Interchange Dr	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	11910 Standiford Plaza Dr	open
Sanchez Bakery & Coffee Shop	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	5016 Mud Ln #100a	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	110 Mkt Pl Dr	open
Sd, Standiford Plaza, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11810 Standiford Plaza Dr	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11810 Standiford Plaza Drive	open
Studio Eats Kitchen & Bar - Louisville Preston Crossings	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9700 Preston Crossing Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11901 Standiford Plaza Rd	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1830 Blankenbaker Pkwy	open
Sweet Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1679 Old Preston Hwy N Ste 26	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	11206 Preston Hwy	open
The Barrel Of Fun Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9421 Smyrna Pkwy	open
Tomo Japanese Ramen Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5023 Mud Ln Ste 160	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	5023 Mud Ln	open
Unbridled Chicken Of Southpoint, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5025 Mud Ln	open
Union Station Night Club	Bar		9302 Blue Lick Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	12020 Standiford Plaza Dr	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	11901 Standiford Plaza Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5036 Mud Lane	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5025 Mud Ln	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	23	20	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	25	23	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	19	17	3	12	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	20	18	4	13	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	21	20	4	15	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	22	20	4	14	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	27	23	3	17	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	29	24	4	18	1	4	NAICS2002
2004	28	25	5	18	1	3	NAICS2002
2005	33	30	9	19	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	32	27	8	17	1	4	NAICS2002
2007	35	34	12	19	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	37	35	12	19	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	41	38	12	21	3	2	NAICS2007
2010	42	39	12	22	3	2	NAICS2007
2011	41	38	12	21	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	40	37	12	22	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	38	36	13	20	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	36	33	10	21	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	37	34	10	21	3	3	NAICS2012
2016	37	34	12	20	2	3	NAICS2012
2017	37	34	11	21	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	38	35	11	22	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	32	30	7	22	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	34	31	7	23	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	39	35	9	24	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	35	31	9	20	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	37	32	8	22	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40229. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40228	3.8 mi	16	2023
40219	3.8 mi	76	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.