BMIE Market 40272

Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	38,289 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,313 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±699 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	37,394 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	15,277 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,940 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,405 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,203 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$176,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40272
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+3.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+3.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+36.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+61.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 29–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	55 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40272. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.6	75	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.1	64	35%	+22.4
Market Momentum Score	55.4	55	25%	+13.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	38,289	93	40%	+37.3
Median household income (ACS)	69,940	47	40%	+18.7
Households (ACS)	14,313	93	20%	+18.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	3.0	48	35%	+16.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	38,289	93	20%	+18.7
Median household income (ACS)	69,940	47	20%	+9.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	3.0	59	50%	+29.7
10-year restaurant growth	3.0	48	30%	+14.5
20-year restaurant growth	36	56	20%	+11.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (76)

By cuisine

American 19 · Mexican 9 · Pizza 8 · Burgers 7 · Coffee 6 · Bakery 5 · Chicken / wings 5 · Italian 5 · Dessert 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chinese 2 · Seafood 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cuban 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 43 · Quick service 23 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 7 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ace’s Bar & Grill	Bar		12812 Dixie Hwy	open
Aj's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho	5501 Valley Station Rd	open
Applebee's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10600 Dixie Hwy	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10704 Dixie Hwy	open
Asian House Asian House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	9707 Dixie Hwy	open
Barry's Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5408 Valley Station Rd	open
Boots Up Saloon	Bar · Casual dining		12801 Dixie Hwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	10600 Dixie Hwy	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Quick service	Seafood · American	10101 Dixie Hwy	open
Catfish Haven Pay Lake Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7200 Whipple Rd	open
Chillburger	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10700 Dixie Hwy	open
Chong Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	10341 Dixie Hwy	open
Christi's Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	12810 Dixie Hwy	open
Cluckers Cluckers-Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	10966 Dixie Hwy	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	11000 Dixie Hwy. US Hwy. 31W	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	11699 Dixie Hwy	open
Derby City Pizza Derby City Pizza Company "PRP"	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12900 Dixie Hwy	open
Dixie Highway Fazoli's	Quick service		10307 Dixie Highway	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	10011 Dixie Highway	open
Donut Express Donut Express	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	9841 3rd Street Rd	open
Double Flame Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5408 Valley Station Rd	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	10501 Dixie Hwy	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	11700 Dixie Hwy	open
El Comal	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9609 Dixie Hwy	open
El Nopal	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10626 Dixie Hwy	open
Fazoli's Fazoli's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	10307 Dixie Hwy	open
Heine Brothers Coffee - Valley Station Heine Brothers' Coffee -Clifton	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10711 Dixie Hwy	open
Hideout Pizzaria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5620 Barrett Ln	open
Hot Legs Gentlemens Club	Bar		13101 Dixie Hwy	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		10700 Dixie Hwy	open
Jalisco El Toque Chingon Mexican Seafood & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	13016 Dixie Hwy	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10103 Dixie Hwy	open
Khalil's	Bar		10966 Dixie Hwy	open
Khalil's Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12502 Dixie Hwy	open
King Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	10972 Dixie Hwy	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10501 Dixie Hwy	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		8809 3rd Street Road	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		10320 Stonestreet Rd	open
La Carreta Mexican Restaurant La Carreta	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10105 Dixie Hwy Ste. 101	open
La Chiquita Dixie	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Cuban	9212 Dixie Hwy	open
Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	9813 3rd Street Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	10019 Dixie Hwy	open
Lone Wolf Family Sports Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5501 Valley Station Rd	open
Mariscos Los Plebes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5501 Valley Station Rd	open
Mark's Feed Store Marks Feed Store Louisville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	10316 Dixie Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10411 Dixie Hwy	open
McDonald's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11701 Dixie Highway	open
Mocha Mum’s Coffee House	Bakery	Bakery	9798 3rd Street Rd	open
Mr Gatti's Pizza Mr Gatti's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10035 Dixie Hwy	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6725 dixie hwy	open
Pappy's Sports Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8807 3rd Street Rd	open
Party Time	Dessert	Dessert	5412 Logwood Ave	open
Penn Station East Coast Subs Penn Station East Coast Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	10800 Dixie Hwy	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9705 Dixie Hwy Jefferson	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10310 Dixie Hwy	open
Reel Time Bar & Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7208 Whipple Rd	open
Restaurante Hondureño	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Rivergirls Lounge	Bar		15514 Dixie Hwy	open
SEEK Enterprises LLC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10411 Dixie Hwy	open
sky high bakery	Bakery	Bakery	7109 Ethan Allen Way	open
South End Zone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	BURGER KING, 10600 Dixie Hwy	open
Stomping Grounds Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10019 Dixie Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10500 Dixie Hwy	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	10701 Dixie Hwy	open
Tacos La Chaparrita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10608 Dixie Hwy	open
Takito Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9821 3rd Street Rd	open
The Fill N Station	Food truck		5408 Valley Station Rd	open
Tumbleweed Tex Mex Grill and Margarita Bar Tumbleweed Southwest Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	9701 Dixie Hwy	open
Valley Dairy Freeze	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	10300 Deering Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	10563 Dixie Hwy	open
Walmart Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	10445 Dixie Hwy	open
White Castle White Castle	Quick service	Burgers · American	12006 Dixie Hwy	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service		10976 Dixie Hwy	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Chicken / wings · Healthy / salads / bowls · American	10715 Dixie Hwy	open
Just Joes' Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5408 Valley Station Rd	closed
Kathy & Joe's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5408 Valley Station Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	21	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	22	18	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	25	19	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	29	24	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	30	24	7	14	3	5	NAICS1997
1999	33	26	9	13	4	5	NAICS1997
2000	32	25	8	13	4	4	NAICS1997
2001	29	25	8	12	5	3	NAICS1997
2002	35	28	10	14	4	4	NAICS1997
2003	33	25	6	15	4	5	NAICS2002
2004	31	26	7	17	2	3	NAICS2002
2005	32	27	8	17	2	3	NAICS2002
2006	34	27	7	17	2	4	NAICS2002
2007	36	28	7	17	3	4	NAICS2002
2008	38	30	10	18	2	3	NAICS2007
2009	37	31	11	17	3	4	NAICS2007
2010	40	34	11	19	3	4	NAICS2007
2011	37	31	11	18	2	4	NAICS2007
2012	34	31	11	18	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	38	33	11	20	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	34	31	9	19	3	2	NAICS2012
2015	37	33	11	19	3	3	NAICS2012
2016	39	36	11	21	4	2	NAICS2012
2017	39	37	11	22	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	35	33	11	19	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	33	31	9	19	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	34	32	10	19	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	39	35	12	19	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	37	33	13	16	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	39	34	13	17	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40272. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40258	4.9 mi	33	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.